Imported Toluene in Mumbai

Escalating conflict between Iran and Israel has significantly impacted domestic market dynamics today, leading to heightened market uncertainty. Shipments of methanol and toluene from Iran have been put on hold, triggering strong reactions within the market. As Iran is a key supplier, especially to China, which relies heavily on Iranian methanol for acetic acid production, supply disruptions are expected to challenge downstream sectors, including ethyl acetate and acetic anhydride, now under increased scrutiny and speculation.

This week, Ethanol amine prices dropped by nearly 3%, tracking a decline in feedstock Ethanol and Ammonia prices. Importers are offering Mono Ethyl Amine (MEA) at ₹105++/kg Ex-Mumbai (ISO Tank) and ₹123++/kg Ex-Mumbai (Barrel) on advance payment terms. Domestic manufacturers have also reduced their prices, according to a leading trader.

Toluene prices in India have increased by ₹3/kg, driven by a rebound in crude oil and naphtha prices, as well as strong demand from the paints, coatings, and pharmaceutical sectors. Supply constraints, coupled with positive spreads in BTX components, suggest a further potential price hike of $70/MT in the near term. India’s Toluene demand is largely met through imports, with domestic production contributing only 16.8%.

Domestic methanol prices witnessed an increase of ₹1.00/kg as importers adjusted their offers upwards. The updated prices, based on advance payment terms with immediate lifting, are as follows: Ex-Kandla: ₹27.00++, Ex-Mumbai: ₹27.50++.

Phenol prices have softened this week due to increased supply, weak upstream market trends, and bearish sentiment. Domestic production has resumed, ensuring stable supply levels. Seasonal demand recovery from plywood manufacturers is expected to offset current price pressures partially.

The melamine market is experiencing downward pricing trends due to oversupply and reduced demand in downstream industries. New production capacities and restored operations of previously offline facilities are intensifying the supply-demand imbalance. Coupled with declining raw material costs, these factors create a challenging outlook for the market.

Toluene prices in the Indian market saw a downward revision due to weak upstream dynamics, including falling crude oil and naphtha prices. The demand remains subdued but is expected to recover with increased activity in the pharmaceutical and paints industries. Global market trends, such as maintenance at chemical plants in China, are also influencing supply and pricing dynamics.

IPA prices in India continue to decline, driven by weak demand, excess inventory, and lower replacement costs despite Anti-Dumping Duty. Domestic and imported supplies remain robust, contributing to price pressure. Crude oil prices fell by 2.45%, while natural gas prices slightly increased.

VAM prices in India have fallen due to weak demand and increased inventories. Sluggish activity during October's festive season further strained market sentiment. However, demand is likely to rebound by mid-November, supported by the paints and coatings sector's seasonal boost. Current Price Dynamics of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM)