Oil & Gas

India's oil market remains tight as refiners rush to replace Russian crude amid geopolitical tensions and Western scrutiny. Brent and WTI prices remain steady, but Indian bitumen prices vary across grades and locations. Urgent tenders and sourcing shifts point to rising procurement costs and heightened volatility in global energy markets.

Bitumen and base oil prices showed mixed regional trends, with sharp drops in VG40 and firm furnace oil rates. Crude oil markets strengthened on falling U.S. inventories and Russian export cuts. Despite temporary supply easing from Venezuela, global prices are expected to remain firm, supported by supply constraints and geopolitical developments.

Despite EU sanctions on Nayara Energy, India’s bitumen and base oil markets remain stable. Prices hold firm, driven by strong domestic demand and steady supply. While geopolitical risks may impact long-term trade dynamics, India’s neutral stance and Nayara’s independent operations help maintain short-term stability in oil product availability and pricing.

The EU plans to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45–50 per barrel, aiming to curb Moscow’s revenue. This could trigger crude price volatility and boost demand for discounted Russian oil from countries like India. Previously, Russia bypassed the cap’s impact by inflating freight and insurance costs, maintaining near-market earnings despite restrictions.

Base oil prices across Asia remained stable to firm in mid-July, supported by constrained supply and rising crude benchmarks. Group I and III grades saw the most pressure. Demand stayed weak due to monsoon impact and soft industrial activity, while refinery turnarounds kept supply tight. Outlook remains firm for key grades.

Brent crude has softened to $82.34/barrel on recession fears, but disciplined OPEC+ output keeps the downside in check. In India, bitumen prices continue to rise, especially at Kandla, amid tight import supply and strong restocking demand. Market sentiment remains bullish due to ongoing monsoon disruption and limited PSU allocations.

Crude oil prices dipped marginally as global sentiment remains cautious. However, demand from petrochemicals is poised to become the largest growth segment for oil through 2030, driven by rising use of plastics and synthetic materials. China and the US lead in feedstock capacity, shaping trade flows and refining economics.

Bitumen prices across global markets show mixed trends as early monsoon weakens Indian demand while geopolitical instability, especially the Israel-Iran conflict, tightens supply. Crude volatility and force majeure conditions in Iran are disrupting export flows, with Europe and China facing upward pressure. Market participants must brace for heightened price and supply risks.

Oil prices fell nearly 5% to $65.72/bbl following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, relieving pressure on Indian refiners but straining upstream firms like ONGC and Oil India. Domestic petroleum prices remained steady. Refining margins improved due to lower input costs, but global demand hesitancy and high inventories continue to weigh on market sentiment.