India’s Bitumen Market Braces for Cost Pressure Amid Rising Import Dependence & Global Trade Uncertainties

Key Highlights

1. Bitumen prices stable despite softer crude and rising import costs.
2. Construction demand reviving post-Diwali, led by road projects. 
3. Import reliance keeps market sensitive to freight and port delays. 
4. Trade negotiations and economic signals to influence Q4 price trends.

India Oil & Bitumen Market Pricing

• India’s bitumen prices are expected to remain under mild upward pressure, supported by elevated freight, insurance, and exchange rate costs. 
• Although international crude oil benchmarks have softened slightly due to easing demand in Asia, the weaker rupee and high logistics expenses continue to provide a cost floor for imported bitumen.
• Feedstock-linked adjustments show that lower crude prices typically reduce bitumen cost, but in the current environment, import margins remain tight for traders. Iran-origin cargoes offer competitive pricing, though sanctions-related risks keep UAE re-exports in strong demand despite a premium.

Latest Bitumen and Base Oil Prices

• Refinery Bitumen (VG40) – Panipat: ₹43,672/MT
• Refinery Bitumen (VG30) – Panipat: ₹41,772/MT
• Roadgrip Bitumen Emulsion (RS-1) – Mathura: ₹32,400/MT
• Roadgrip Bitumen Emulsion (SS-1) – Mathura: ₹33,800/MT
• Base Oil (SN150) – Delhi: ₹67.5/kg
• Base Oil (N150) – Mundra: ₹63.5/ltr

Construction Revival and Imports Define Market Balance

• Following the Diwali break, Indian buyers and infrastructure contractors have gradually resumed procurement activities. 
• Seasonal construction demand, especially from road and highway projects, is expected to pick up pace in November–December, marking the last leg of the fiscal construction cycle.
• On the supply side, India’s import dependence (~88.1%) leaves the market vulnerable to global freight volatility and port delays, particularly at Kandla Port, a key hub for North and West India.
• Middle Eastern suppliers — notably Iran, Iraq, and the UAE — continue to dominate sourcing. Heavy-grade bitumen and base oils, however, face weaker regional demand due to cooler weather conditions in parts of Asia, dampening high-viscosity product movement.

Global Trade Shifts and Energy Talks Shape Market Sentiment

• Across Asia, trading activity was slow to recover post-holidays, with uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and sanctions on Russian oil clouding sentiment. 
• Buyers remain cautious, expecting downward pressure on base oil and fuel prices through the remainder of Q4.
• Meanwhile, signs of economic slowdown in key markets such as China have weighed on lubricant and heavy-grade demand. 
• On the geopolitical front, the U.S.–China trade negotiations have reportedly made progress, with a tentative framework that may delay additional tariffs and ease export controls on rare earths. 
• U.S. President Donald Trump’s expected meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in South Korea may influence regional trade confidence and, indirectly, energy flows and pricing stability in Asia.

Market Expectation: Year-End Demand and Trade Signals to Guide Price Outlook

• Looking ahead, the Indian bitumen market is likely to see firm-to-steady prices, supported by import cost floors, year-end infrastructure demand, and supply chain constraints. Traders and buyers are advised to secure yard-ready stocks early, especially from Kandla and Jebel Ali, to hedge against logistical disruptions.
• Regionally, Asian base oil and heavy-cut markets may continue facing mild downward correction through year-end amid sluggish demand and inventory management by refiners. However, policy and trade signals from upcoming U.S.–China talks could shift market sentiment, potentially lending stability to crude and derivative prices moving into Q1 2026.