NALCO Aluminium T/Sow Ingot (IT07/SE07) in Faridabad

Aluminium prices remain volatile amid global trade tensions, with LME opening higher today at $2,373.6/ton. Despite the U.S. raising aluminium tariffs to 25%, India's producers remain largely unaffected due to minimal U.S. exposure. Analysts see strong international demand and tightening supply in Asia, but caution that further price direction depends on trade policy clarity and China’s production limits.

Global aluminium production increased 2.3% YoY in March, with China nearing its production cap. Inventories declined in both China and Japan, suggesting tightening supply. LME and MCX prices saw a modest rise, reflecting increased buying interest. Export momentum continues, but policy support is critical to sustaining growth.

Aluminium prices opened lower on LME, SHFE, and MCX, reflecting minor corrections. China’s February output dropped month-on-month but grew year-on-year. India imposed anti-dumping duties on aluminium foil and other products to curb cheap imports from China. Global primary aluminium production increased 2.7% in January, signalling a stable supply outlook.

Aluminium prices remain stable despite China’s record-high production, as supply growth is expected to slow due to regulatory caps and export tax changes. JPMorgan forecasts a significant global deficit in 2025, pushing market expectations higher. Meanwhile, bauxite arrivals at Chinese ports and shipments from major exporters like Guinea and Australia have declined, further tightening supply.

Aluminium prices increased 1.21%, closing at Rs 264.4/kg, driven by US import tariffs and supply constraints. The global aluminium market is expected to face a 600,000 mt deficit by 2025, as China enforces production caps. Meanwhile, global aluminium output increased by 2.7% YoY. Analysts see support at Rs 262.8, with resistance at Rs 265.3, signalling potential further price movement.

Aluminium prices remain stable with minor fluctuations, as end-user demand shows hesitation despite rising supply. Inventories for Aluminium ingots and billets have surpassed key levels, indicating slower movement in the market. Suppliers are holding back cargoes in anticipation of more favorable conditions, while macroeconomic factors like interest rates and inflation remain key drivers for future price movements.

Aluminum prices saw a slight decline as global production increased, particularly in China. While domestic production is expected to rise gradually in February, profitability concerns persist for Chinese smelters. The market is also reacting to growing Russian aluminum stocks in LME warehouses and potential EU sanctions. Experts suggest the market is undergoing structural adjustments.

Aluminium prices on MCX fell by 1.06%, driven by increased global production and higher stock levels. China and Japan reported production and inventory surges, while the EU plans to include Russian aluminium in its sanctions package. Rising production costs in China are causing losses for the first time in three years. Experts forecast aluminium support at Rs 251.4 and resistance at Rs 254.

Aluminum prices held steady despite mixed trends in the global market. Supply constraints at LME warehouses and strong Chinese production shaped price movements. Declining alumina costs and ongoing U.S. tariff discussions further influenced market sentiment.