Aluminium Prices Open Lower; India Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Aluminium Imports

Key Takeaways

• LME and MCX Show Slight Declines: Aluminium prices on LME, SHFE, and MCX opened lower today, reflecting minor market corrections.
• China’s Production Fluctuates: February output dropped due to fewer production days, but overall January-February production grew by 2.6% year-on-year.
• India Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties: To curb cheap Chinese imports, India has levied duties on aluminium foil and other products for up to five years.
• Global Production Trends Up: January’s primary aluminium production increased 2.7% year-on-year, signalling stable global supply.
• Market Faces Resistance and Support Levels: Aluminium has technical support at Rs 253.2, with resistance at Rs 259.9, indicating potential volatility.

Aluminium Price

• As of last day, LME opened at $2662 /mt and closed at $2624.5/mt. Today LME opened at $2623.8/mt. 
• As of last day, SHFE opened at 20,665 Yuan/MT and closed at 20,655 Yuan/MT. As of today, SHFE opened at 20,710 Yuan/MT. 
• As of last day, MCX closed at Rs 257.25/Kg. Today, the market opened at Rs 256.45/Kg.

Aluminium Demand & Supply

• China's aluminium production in February 2025 saw a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, but a month-on-month decline of 95,000 metric tons, due to fewer production days and the restoration of previously reduced capacity. For the January-February period, production rose by 2.6% to 7.32 million metric tons, bolstered by higher profitability for smelters, which was driven by lower alumina prices and reduced supply constraints, as reported by state-backed research firm Antaike.
• In January, global primary aluminium production increased by 2.7% year-on-year to reach 6.252 million mt, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI).

Aluminium News

• India has recently imposed anti-dumping duties on five Chinese products, including vacuum flasks and aluminium foil, in order to protect domestic industries from the influx of cheap imports from China. These products—Soft Ferrite Cores, certain types of vacuum insulated flasks, aluminium foil, Trichloro Isocyanuric Acid, and Poly Vinyl Chloride Paste Resin—were being exported to India at prices lower than the normal market value.
• According to separate notifications from the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs, Department of Revenue, the duties will be applied for five years on Soft Ferrite Cores, vacuum insulated flasks, and Trichloro Isocyanuric Acid imports. Additionally, a provisional anti-dumping duty of up to USD 873 per mt has been set on aluminium foil for six months.

Expert Opinion

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 26.6% to 1,614. Aluminium has support at 253.2, and if it drops below this level, it could test 250.8. On the upside, resistance is at 259.9, and above this level could drive prices up to 264.2.