Bitumen Market Struggles with Oversupply and Seasonal Weakness Despite Regional Tender Activity

Key Highlights

• Price Range: Singapore $410–415/t FOB; Malaysia $428–430/t ex-refinery; Indonesia $470–475/t CFR; South Korea $390–395/t FOB; India VG40 imports $275–280/t FOB Iran.
• Supply Pressure: Inventories remain high across Asia-Pacific and the Middle East despite planned refinery maintenance in Singapore and Malaysia.
• Demand Trends: Monsoon rains in India, Vietnam, and Thailand, plus China’s infrastructure funding gap, keep road construction muted.
• Notable Activity: Indonesia active with October tenders; Iran domestic market stable under IME support even as exports soften.

Regional Bitumen Price Snapshot: Asia-Pacific and Middle East Benchmarks

Bitumen Market Price Overview

• Singapore: Export bitumen offered at $410–415/t fob for October-loading cargoes; earlier offers at $415–420/t fob failed to attract buyers. Deals to Indonesia closed at $405–415/t fob.
• Malaysia: Prices stable at $428–430/t ex-refinery, with oversupply from local and Singaporean refiners.
• Indonesia: October-loading deals at $470–475/t cfr for 4,000–5,000t cargoes; smaller 3,000t lots concluded at $450–455/t cfr.
• Thailand: October-loading export offers at $415–425/t fob, limited buying interest.
• Vietnam: Import bids at $395–410/t fob Singapore (north) and $430–435/t (south).
• South Korea: Export prices dropped to $390–395/t fob, with buying interest from Southeast Asia.
• China (Shandong ex-works): 3,480–3,770 yuan/t ($489–530/t), with Singapore-origin offers at $450–460/t cfr south China.
• India: Imports selectively purchased; VG40 bulk at $275–280/t fob Iran. 
• Iran: Bulk sales at $274–278/t fob Bandar Abbas for Pen 60/70 and VG40. 
• Iraq: Drum exports offered at $340–345/t fob (Pen 60/70) and $350–365/t fob (VG30).

Demand–Supply Balance: High Inventories Meet Weather-Driven Slowdown

• Oversupply remains a key pressure point across Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, with high inventories and sluggish consumption dominating the market.
• Singapore & Malaysia: Inventories remain high; refinery maintenance expected later may tighten supply temporarily, but current demand is too weak to lift prices. 
• Indonesia: Demand steady, especially in western regions; tenders driving selective restocking, though most importers remain cautious. 
• Thailand: Refiners prioritize domestic markets; wet weather limits road construction, capping exports. 
• Vietnam: Heavy monsoon rains and existing stocks kept buyers sidelined; only selective bids for October cargoes. 
• South Korea: Exports redirected to Southeast Asia as weak China demand pressures domestic balances. 
• China: Modest recovery in north, but east and south remain sluggish due to rains and funding shortages.
• Australia & New Zealand: Winter season suppressed demand, except in drier Queensland. 
• India: Seasonal monsoon slowdown continues; selective imports ahead of post-monsoon construction season.
• Iran & Iraq: Export demand weak; domestic market in Iran stable under IME support, while Iraq struggles with Indian demand slowdown.

Market Movers: Maintenance Schedules, Currency Shifts, and Tender Activity

• Refinery Maintenance: Several refiners in Singapore and Southeast Asia plan maintenance in late September–October, which could reduce short-term availability.
• Seasonal Factors: Wet weather and monsoon conditions continue to dampen road construction in Vietnam, India, and Thailand. In Australia and New Zealand, winter has suppressed activity, with only minor demand from Queensland.
• Currency & Trade Flows: The US dollar depreciation failed to stimulate demand in Singapore, as buyers preferred to digest existing stocks. 
• Tender Activity: Indonesia remained active with October-loading tenders, reflecting selective but consistent procurement in western regions. 
• China’s Funding Gap: Roadwork and infrastructure projects remain constrained due to limited financing, restricting any meaningful demand rebound. 
• Iran Domestic Market: Support from the Iran Mercantile Exchange ensures stable local consumption, even as export demand falters.

Forward View: Rangebound Prices Amid Seasonal and Structural Weakness

Near term, bitumen markets are likely to stay under pressure from high inventories, wet weather, and subdued demand. Temporary relief may come from refinery maintenance in Singapore and new project awards in Malaysia and India post-monsoon. However, oversupply and weak seasonal demand trends suggest that prices will remain rangebound with limited upside momentum.