ArcelorMittal Raises HRC Offers Amid Import Pressure, Demand Uncertainty in European Market

Key Highlights

• ArcelorMittal lifts HRC offers to €610/ton, imports remain cheaper.
   
• Demand recovery in Europe patchy, with buyers cautious on higher offers.
   
• CBAM from 2026 and proposed import quota cuts may support EU mills.
   
• Traders delaying big purchases until CBAM clarity despite seasonal demand hopes.

Price Trends: ArcelorMittal HRC at €610 vs €490 imports

• ArcelorMittal has increased its hot rolled coil (HRC) offers to €610/ton EXW for Q4 2025 delivery, marking a 3.4% rise from last week’s €590/ton. 
• However, import offers remain significantly lower at around €490/ton CFR (~€565/ton EXW equivalent), creating a wide gap between domestic and overseas supplies. 
• In comparison, offers in late July stood at €530–540/ton, already showing a softening from June levels. Cold rolled coil (CRC) currently maintains a ~€100/ton premium over HRC.

Demand & Supply: Buyers cautious, EU mills under pressure

• Demand recovery remains patchy across Europe, with buyers cautious about accepting higher domestic offers amid competitive imports. 
• Seasonal factors, such as a pickup in construction and building activity post-summer, could provide some uplift. 
• However, traders are currently resistant, citing cheaper import options and limited spot buying interest. 
• Supply-side concerns also remain, as EU mills struggle to lift utilization rates, with Eurofer pushing for quota cuts to reduce reliance on imports.

Market News: CBAM and quota cuts reshape steel trade

• The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to begin on January 1, 2026, is emerging as a major market driver. Importers face uncertainty, fearing potential retroactive charges in 2027 on steel purchased in 2026, which is already making cheaper imports less attractive despite their price advantage. 
• In response, Eurofer has recommended a 40–50% reduction in steel import quotas from third countries ahead of CBAM implementation. 
• This proposal, aligned with the European Commission’s Steel & Metals Action Plan (March 2025), aims to push EU mill utilization back to 85% capacity and safeguard against global overcapacity pressures.

Expert Opinion: EU mills gain strength as 2026 rules near

• In the short term, traders are unlikely to accept ArcelorMittal’s higher HRC offers given the availability of cheaper imports. 
• However, medium-term dynamics suggest that CBAM implementation and quota reductions could strengthen the pricing power of EU mills. Buyers are expected to delay large purchases until there is clarity on CBAM’s framework. 
• Nevertheless, a post-summer seasonal demand recovery and regulatory shifts could provide a more supportive backdrop for higher domestic prices going into late 2025.