Bitumen Market Steady with Mild Bearish Undertone Ahead of Post-Monsoon Rebound

Key Highlights

• Stable Prices: Bitumen prices hold steady as INR and crude remain stable.
• Weak Demand: Monsoon-driven slowdown cuts road construction demand by ~16%.
• Supply Secure: Iraq and Iran maintain steady exports; Indian port stocks remain comfortable.
• Outlook: Prices mildly bearish until Q4 demand revival post-monsoon.

Petroleum Price: Bitumen Prices Steady on Stable INR and Softer Crude

• Bitumen prices in India remain steady, supported by relative stability in the USD/INR exchange rate and softer international crude benchmarks. 
• The Indian rupee traded in a narrow band around ₹87.37 per USD, offering some relief to importers and keeping landed costs in check. 
• International crude oil prices, particularly Brent, have eased from early-August highs of $72/bbl to $66–67/bbl on oversupply concerns, lowering refining input costs. 
• Iranian export prices hovered around $400/MT FOB in July, holding largely flat amid cheaper crude. With both crude and currency stabilizing, import parity prices for bitumen remain under mild downward pressure.

Demand and Supply: Monsoon Curtails Demand with Contractors Deferring Purchases

• Seasonal monsoon conditions continue to suppress near-term demand. Road construction projects across India have slowed significantly, with June demand falling by ~16% and July offtake further impacted. 
• Contractors are holding back purchases, waiting for clearer skies. On the supply side, imports remain adequate. Both Iraq and Iran maintain steady shipments, with Iraq now the world’s largest bulk bitumen exporter and a leading supplier to India. 
• Ample inventories at Indian ports, especially Kandla, are ensuring sufficient availability despite temporary vessel backlogs caused by rains. Public sector refiners are also limiting allocations and deferring major price revisions, preventing oversupply while maintaining controlled availability.

Market News: Iraq and Iran Ensure Adequate Supply Despite Port Congestion

• Currency Factor: INR stability against USD has reduced cost volatility for importers.
• Crude Oil: Brent softening on OPEC+ output growth and rising U.S. inventories, easing input costs for refiners.
• Iran: Logistics hurdles such as drum shortages at Bandar Abbas slowed some outbound cargoes, but overall flows remain steady.
• Iraq: Strong refinery output continues to support India’s demand, consolidating Iraq’s role as a key global exporter.
• Ports: Monsoon-related congestion at Kandla Port is easing with improved discharge operations, ensuring stable supply lines.

Market Expectation: Mildly Bearish Until Post-Monsoon Recovery

• The near-term outlook remains subdued as the monsoon dampens roadwork activity and demand bottoms out in August–September.
• However, industry participants anticipate a strong rebound in Q4 as construction projects accelerate post-monsoon. Adequate port stocks and steady inflows from Middle Eastern suppliers suggest no immediate shortages. 
• With crude oil prices trending softer and the INR stable, import parity costs are expected to remain steady to slightly lower in the coming weeks. Traders remain cautious, however, as any reversal in crude prices or currency volatility could quickly tighten margins. 
• Overall, the market tone is steady with a mildly bearish undertone until demand revives post-monsoon.