Crude Oil Prices Steady Amid Year-End Lull; India and China Demand in Focus
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Crude oil prices moderated on December 30 amidst low-volume trading due to the ongoing year-end holidays. All eyes are on economic data from China and the USA. Brent Crude futures fell by 6 cents, touching $74.11 per barrel. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined by 8 cents, reaching $70.52 per barrel. MCX Crude oil prices opened at 6060, with a gain of 0.41%.
Crude Oil Price Trends
- Due to the ongoing year-end holidays, crude oil prices moderated on December 30 amidst low-volume trading. All eyes are on economic data from China and the USA.
- Brent Crude futures fell by 6 cents, touching $74.11 per barrel.
- Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined by 8 cents, reaching $70.52 per barrel. MCX Crude oil prices opened at 6060, with a gain of 0.41%.
India's Crude Oil Production & Refining Update
- India’s crude oil production fell by 2.1% year-on-year in November 2024, totaling 2.3 million metric tonnes (MMT), according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC).
- The production breakdown includes 0.3 MMT from Oil India Limited (OIL), 1.5 MMT from ONGC, and 0.6 MMT from private operators under Production Sharing Contracts.
- In November, Indian refineries processed 21.6 MMT of crude oil, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to last year.
- Public sector and joint venture refiners processed 14.7 MMT, while private refiners handled 6.9 MMT. A total of 19.6 MMT of crude was imported.
- Despite the drop in crude oil output, petroleum product production rose by 2.9% to 23.5 MMT in November 2024. This was led by high-speed diesel (HSD) at 41.1%, followed by motor.
China's Crude Oil Import Quotas & Market Outlook
- These quotas are being issued in batches by provinces this year, following a recent small batch of 5.84 million tons issued in November, sources said.
- This brings the total volume issued for 2025 to 158.33 million tons (3.17 million barrels per day) so far, compared to 179.01 million tons for 2024.
- Beijing manages crude imports by independent refiners under a rigid quota system. The government has set a broad cap of 257 million tons for non-state importers, higher than the 243 million tons for 2024.
- Crude imports by dominant state refiners Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC are not subject to this quota management.
- The quotas are granted to independent refiners, including four large integrated refiners and numerous smaller plants, known as "teapots," making up more than one-third of total imports into the world’s largest buyer of crude.
Expert Opinion: China's Oil Demand and Global Impact
- China’s crude oil imports are on track to peak as soon as next year as transport fuel demand begins to decline, ending the country’s decades-long run as the dominant driver of expanding oil consumption.
- To revive growth, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue a record three trillion yuan (S$558 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025. As the energy market looks for clues on global crude oil demand growth in 2025, many are watching how things may unfold in India, with China’s consumption potentially plateauing.
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