Crude Price Drop and Fiscal Flexibility Anchor India’s 6.5% Growth Outlook Amid Global Headwinds

Key Highlights

• Crude Update: WTI and Brent crude prices up by 0.81% and 0.66% respectively.
• Bitumen Price: VG30 at ₹48,612/MT (Panipat); Emulsion RS1 at ₹33,500/MT (Mathura).
• Domestic Resilience: Demand supported by easing inflation and strong policy levers.
• Macro Forecast: India’s GDP projected to grow 6.5% in FY26 (EY, RBI, S&P).

Pan-India Industrial Oil and Bitumen Price Snapshot: April Update

• Refinery Bitumen (VG30) is available in Panipat at ₹48,612 per metric ton. Roadgrip Bitumen Emulsion (RS 1) is priced at ₹33,500 per metric ton in Mathura. In Delhi, Base Oil (SN150) is being offered at ₹68 per kilogram. 
• Fuel Oil (Virgin 180cST Furnace Oil) is available in Mundra at ₹48.5 per kilogram. LubriEdge Rubber Process Oil (Paraffinic 245) is priced at ₹72 per litre in Delhi. 
• In Bhiwadi, LubriEdge Hydraulic Oil (Hydraulic Oil 68) is available at ₹87 per litre, while LubriEdge Gear Oil (Gear Oil 150) is at ₹115 per litre.
• LubriEdge Rust Preventive Oil (Water Displacing Type) is at ₹122 per litre, and LubriEdge Metal Working Fluid (Soluble Cutting Oil) is priced at ₹112 per litre.

Demand and Supply: Domestic Oil & Lubricant Prices Hold Steady

• India’s domestic demand is expected to remain resilient despite increasing global uncertainties. The fall in crude oil prices, from USD 75/bbl in early April to USD 65/bbl mid-month, is a major driver behind easing inflationary pressure. This creates more consumer spending power, which in turn supports demand across sectors, especially in fuel-intensive industries like transportation, manufacturing, and logistics.
• However, external demand is likely to soften due to a global slowdown and a surge in protectionist trade policies, particularly from the United States. The rise in US reciprocal tariffs and higher duties on Chinese exports are signs of a deepening tariff war, which could indirectly impact India’s export-oriented sectors. 
• Export growth may remain sluggish due to weakening global consumption and increased competition stemming from excess production capacities globally—particularly in countries like China, which may resort to dumping goods at lower prices.
• On the supply side, India enjoys relatively strong fiscal space and monetary flexibility, allowing the government to potentially inject stimulus measures if required. Policy interventions, including Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, investment in education and AI technologies, and deeper trade engagement with partners like the UK, EU, and the US, are expected to strengthen the supply ecosystem, especially for high-growth sectors.

Market News: Global Tariffs Pose Challenges for Indian Exports

• The EY Economy Watch – April Edition forecasts India’s GDP to grow at 6.5% in FY26, echoing estimates from RBI and S&P Global, and slightly above projections from the IMF (6.2%) and World Bank (6.3%).

Several macro trends underpin this forecast:

• Global crude oil prices are forecasted to remain between USD 60–65/bbl, providing a substantial buffer against inflation and improving India’s trade balance.
   
• A 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs followed by steep tariff increases (up to 245% on Chinese goods) has reshuffled the global trade order, prompting nations like India to diversify sourcing and increase self-reliance.
   
• The report notes that India’s exports might face headwinds due to global excess capacities and weakened demand, but these will have limited overall GDP impact as net exports have been a small component in recent growth trends.
   
• A potential bilateral trade agreement with the US is anticipated by September-October 2025, which could help stabilize trade relations and boost mutual access to goods and services.
   
• Emphasis is also placed on structural reforms in areas like land, labor, skilling, and GenAI, as well as broader PLI coverage - seen as critical for medium- to long-term resilience.

Market Expectations: GDP Growth Forecast Remains Strong 

Despite global headwinds and volatile trade dynamics, India is expected to sustain a 6.5% growth rate in FY26, supported by low oil prices, strategic policy interventions, and robust domestic demand. Continued macroeconomic discipline and timely reform execution will be key to maintaining momentum amid evolving global conditions.