Global Bitumen Market Update Amid Geopolitical and Economic Shifts

Key Highlights:

1. Bitumen Prices Fluctuate Across Key Markets – Prices range from $420 in South Korea to $460 in Singapore, with European prices between $430 and $460.
2. OPEC+ Supply Cuts and Trade Tariffs Affect Demand – A 2.2 million bpd supply cut and U.S. tariff hikes on China, Mexico, and Canada impact market trends.
3. Geopolitical Events Add to Market Uncertainty – Trade tensions, Middle East instability, and European economic shifts influence energy markets.
4. Short-Term Volatility Expected Despite Price Drops – India’s refinery price hikes, OPEC+ decisions, and logistics in Iran could drive price fluctuations.

Bitumen Prices Volatile Amid Crude Oil Fluctuations

• Bitumen prices have remained volatile due to fluctuations in crude oil prices and supply chain disruptions. In Singapore, 180CST closed at $448, while bitumen prices stood at $460 in Singapore and $420 in South Korea. 
• Bahrain maintained its supply at $420, though adjustments may follow due to declining fuel prices. European bitumen prices ranged between $430 and $460. 
• Meanwhile, in India, VG30 and VG40 prices dropped by $3 and $4, respectively, on March 1. However, mid-March could bring a price rebound if Indian refineries proceed with their planned hikes.

Global Supply Cuts and Tariffs Reshape Market Dynamics

• The global bitumen market continues to be influenced by OPEC+ supply adjustments and geopolitical factors. The gradual implementation of the 2.2 million barrels per day supply cut by OPEC+ has caused uncertainty among investors, leading to downward pressure on crude oil prices. 
• Additionally, U.S. tariff hikes on China, Mexico, and Canada could slow economic growth, affecting fuel demand and indirectly impacting bitumen consumption. 
• In Iran, logistical issues ahead of the New Year have prevented price drops despite falling oil prices. 
• Demand remains steady in Asia, but volatility persists in Europe, where economic concerns and energy policies dictate bitumen consumption trends.

Geopolitical Developments Impact Energy Market Trends

• Geopolitical tensions and economic policies are shaping the bitumen market. Trump's tariff increases on China triggered retaliatory measures, escalating trade tensions. Meanwhile, Russia expressed readiness for peace negotiations, potentially stabilizing energy markets. 
• In the Middle East, Trump's ultimatum regarding captives in Gaza could impact regional stability. Additionally, Europe's call for higher military budgets and shifting economic policies further complicate market dynamics. 
• The impact of these events on crude oil supply and bitumen prices remains uncertain, but market players are closely monitoring developments.

Market Outlook: Continued Volatility Expected

• While the recent decline in crude oil prices has put downward pressure on bitumen, upcoming refinery price revisions in India and OPEC+ supply adjustments may drive fluctuations. Singapore and Bahrain markets are likely to see price corrections based on fuel trends, while European markets may experience demand uncertainty. 
• Iran’s bitumen pricing could remain stable in the short term due to logistical constraints, but post-New Year adjustments are expected. Global market participants should anticipate continued volatility amid shifting geopolitical and economic conditions.