Global Bitumen Market Wavers Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Oil Volatility, and Trade Sanctions

Key Takeaways

• Brent Crude Steady: Brent settled at $66.48, showing limited movement despite heightened geopolitical and economic risks.
• Bitumen Price Hike in India: VG30 and VG40 prices increased by ₹2 and ₹2.5 respectively due to strong domestic demand.
• Global Supply Risks Persist: Tensions in the Middle East and Houthi missile reports keep markets on alert, despite no current disruptions.
• Iranian Market Volatile: Iranian bitumen prices saw a $25 spread as talks and political uncertainty rattled suppliers.
• Safe-Haven Demand Rises: Gold surged to $3,290, signalling growing investor caution amid oil market instability.

Petroleum Prices: Mixed Global Movement 

1. Brent Crude: Closed at $66.48 on Thursday.
2. Singapore Fuel Oil 180 CST: Settled at $432.
3. Bitumen Prices:
   a. Singapore: $415
   b. South Korea: $385
   c. Bahrain: Stable at $420
   d. Europe: Decreased to $380–420
4. India: Increased by $2 for VG30 and $2.5 for VG40 on April 15, driven by strong domestic demand.
5. Iran: Experiencing a volatile range with a $25 spread between the highest and lowest offers, due to geopolitical uncertainties and crude oil fluctuations.

Petroleum Demand and Supply Dynamics: Demand Surges, Supply Risks Persist

• India: Demand remains high, sustaining prices despite a recent dip in crude oil during early April. Price hikes were modest compared to market expectations, but strong consumption is expected to keep rates steady in early May.
• Iran: Supply-side pressure continues due to falling crude oil and vacuum bottom prices. Political tension with the U.S. and ongoing negotiations have added instability, making suppliers hesitant and contributing to wider price variation.
• Global Markets: No immediate disruption in supply from Middle East conflicts (e.g., Israel vs. Axis of Resistance, Houthi missile reports). However, underlying geopolitical friction may limit supply flexibility in the near term.

Petroleum Market News: US Tariffs, Middle East Tensions and Iran Talks

1. U.S.–China Tensions:
   a. The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Chinese independent refineries for importing Iranian oil.
   b. Announced tariffs on Chinese goods, including minerals, medicines, and equipment.
   c. In response, China halted Boeing purchases from the U.S.
2. Geopolitics in the Middle East:
   a. Escalating conflict between Israel and Axis of Resistance continues.
   b. Reports of Houthi missile activity, though no direct impact on oil supply/prices yet.
3. Iran-U.S. Relations:
   a. Negotiations in Oman contributed to a 19% drop in the USD to Iranian Rial exchange rate.
   b. A second round of talks in Italy is underway, influencing sentiment in Iran’s bitumen pricing.
4. Oil Price Forecasts:
   a. Goldman Sachs projects oil at $63 by end-2025.
   b. HSBC estimates a range of $68.5 per barrel.
   c. These are based on concerns over oversupply, sluggish Chinese growth, and tight U.S. monetary policy.
5. Investor Behavior:
   Gold prices hit a record $3,290, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets amid market uncertainty.

Expert Opinion: Maintain Cautious Approach

• The market outlook remains cautious. Bitumen prices are expected to remain steady in high-demand regions like India but could face downward pressure elsewhere due to:
  a. Continued volatility in crude oil prices
  b. Political and trade tensions
  c. Ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations
• Key factors to watch include Middle East stability, tariff escalations, and the outcome of diplomatic talks affecting sanctions and trade routes.