Global PE Market Slows as North America Leads Supply and Demand Weakens in China

Key Takeaways

• Price Adjustments in India: GAIL, IOCL, OPAL, and RIL revised polymer prices, with LLDPE Roto, PP Non-Woven, and select HDPE grades seeing cuts, while PVC and PET prices increased.
• Polyethylene Demand Growth Slows: Global PE demand grew 2.2% in 2024, with China lagging at 1.2%, while Latin America and South Asia saw stronger growth.
• North America Leads PE Supply Growth: The region added 2.1 million tons to global production, while Middle Eastern exports remained stagnant due to weaker demand and trade disruptions.
• Polymer Plant Shutdowns in China: Several major units, including Pucheng Clean Energy’s CTO plant and Yisheng Petrochemical’s PTA unit, are undergoing maintenance, affecting supply.
• Trade Outlook: Geopolitical factors, tariff negotiations between the US and India, and regional supply chain shifts will shape the polymer market in the coming months.

Polymer Price Revisions: Cuts in PP & LLDPE, PVC & PET See Hikes

• Effective 1st April 2025, several Indian polymer producers announced price revisions. GAIL reduced LLDPE Roto Molding grades by ₹3,000/MT and LLDPE Injection Molding grades by ₹1,000/MT, while rolling over all other LLDPE and HDPE prices. 
• HPL cut PP Non-woven grades by ₹2,000/MT but maintained other PP, LLDPE, and HDPE prices. Chemplast raised PVC Paste Resin prices by ₹5,000/MT.
• IOCL reduced select PP grades (1350YG, 1250YG, etc.) by ₹2,000/MT, LLDPE IM by ₹1,000/MT, LLDPE Roto by ₹3,000/MT, and specific HDPE grades (004DP44 & 002DP48) by ₹2,000/MT, while discontinuing trade discounts on certain products. 
• OPAL decreased PP F&F grades by ₹2,000/MT and LLDPE Roto by ₹3,000/MT, with LLDPE High Flow down ₹1,000/MT, but rolled over other PP, LLDPE, and HDPE prices.
• RIL increased LDPE prices by ₹1,000/MT (except EC/HD grades up ₹2,000/MT and LD AL sector up ₹1,500/MT), while cutting LLDPE Roto by ₹3,000/MT and LLDPE High Flow by ₹1,000/MT. It rolled over other LLDPE/HDPE prices and most PP domestic prices, except PP F&F grades (down ₹2,000/MT). 
• RIL also reduced PP Deemed Export prices by ₹1,500/MT, and PVC by ₹2,000/MT, but raised PET by ₹1,000/MT.
• ASPET/RAMAPET and CHIRIPAL increased PET prices by ₹1,000/MT, while Supreme Petrochemicals cut GPPS and HIPS prices by ₹1,000/MT.

Polymer Demand-Supply Dynamics: Demand Softens in China, Growth Shifts to South Asia & LAC

• As per the Aurgus Media market report, the global polyethylene (PE) market in 2024 witnessed moderate growth, with demand expanding by 2.2%, a decline from 3.2% in 2023. 
• Among the three primary PE grades, HDPE and LDPE grew by 2.5%, while LLDPE lagged behind at 1.8%. The slowdown was primarily driven by weak macroeconomic conditions in China, where PE demand increased by just 1.2%, significantly lower than the global average. 
• Since China accounts for 34% of global PE demand, its economic challenges had a cascading effect on overall market sentiment.
• However, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and South Asia have emerged as bright spots, with demand surging by 11.8% and 7.2%, respectively. Brazil’s PE consumption was fueled by post-flood reconstruction in Rio de Janeiro, while India’s demand was supported by population growth and industrial activity, despite slowing from its historical 15% annual growth due to reduced infrastructure-driven HDPE pipe demand.
• On the supply side, North America dominated production growth, adding 2.1 million tons to the market, accounting for 85% of the global PE production increase. This was supported by new production units such as Shell Chemicals Monaca, Bayport Polymers Bayport, and Nova Chemicals in Sarnia. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern exports stagnated due to weaker demand and Red Sea trade disruptions, which hindered shipments.

Polymer News: Major Polymer Plants in China Undergo Maintenance

• Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Company has shut down its coal-to-olefins (CTO) plant in early April 2025 for a maintenance turnaround. Located in Shannxi, China, the CTO plant has a propylene production capacity of 400,000 mt/year.
• Yisheng Petrochemical is planning to shut down its No. 1 Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) unit in April 2025 for maintenance. The unit, located in Yangpu, Hainan, China, has an annual production capacity of 2 million tons.
• Keyuan Petrochemicals has resumed operations at its No. 2 Styrene Monomer (SM) plant in Ningbo, Zhejiang, following scheduled maintenance. The plant has a production capacity of 150,000 tons per year. 
• Shanghai Petrochemical will temporarily shut its No. 2 Polypropylene (PP) unit in Shanghai from April 4 to May 19, 2025, for maintenance. The unit has an annual capacity of 100,000 tons. 
• The Government of India has launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of Emulsion Styrene Butadiene Rubber (SBR) of the 1500 series from the European Union, Japan, Korea, Russia, and Thailand.

Market Expectations & Trade Outlook: Macroeconomic Uncertainty Keeps Polymer Markets Volatile

• As macroeconomic uncertainties persist, PE demand is expected to remain weak in mature economies, while emerging markets may sustain moderate growth. North America and the Middle East will continue to dominate the export landscape, leveraging their cost-advantaged ethane feedstock. While Middle Eastern exports are expected to rebound, Red Sea disruptions and trade shifts could influence regional supply chains.
• With US and India negotiating tariff reductions, trade flows may realign, fostering greater PE demand in South Asia. The global PE market will remain sensitive to geopolitical conflicts, tariff changes, and economic recovery trends, shaping pricing, supply routes, and competitive dynamics in the near future.