Global Trade Tensions Stir Oil, Bitumen Market Amid Supply Shifts and Geopolitical Risks

Key Highlights

1. Bitumen prices in India rose by $5 on April 1 amid tight supply and logistic delays post-holiday.
2. U.S. crude inventories surged by 6.2M barrels—signaling soft demand and weaker refinery throughput.
3. Trump’s tariff move caused crude prices to drop ~3%, reviving global trade war concerns.
4. Iran’s re-entry into the market post-Nowruz and Eid may add fresh bitumen supply pressure in South Asia.

Domestic Petroleum Prices Stable, Minor Bitumen Hike Observed

• Refinery Bitumen (VG30) is available in Panipat at ₹48,612 per metric ton. Roadgrip Bitumen Emulsion (RS 1) is priced at ₹33,810 per metric ton in Mathura. In Delhi, Base Oil (SN150) is being offered at ₹68 per kilogram. 
• Fuel Oil (Virgin 180cST Furnace Oil) is available in Mundra at ₹48.5 per kilogram. Lubriedge Rubber Process Oil (Paraffinic 245) is priced at ₹72 per litre in Delhi. 
• In Bhiwadi, LubriEdge Hydraulic Oil (Hydraulic Oil 68) is available at ₹87 per liter, and LubriEdge Gear Oil (Gear Oil 150) at ₹115 per liter.
• LubriEdge Rust Preventive Oil (Water Displacing Type - WDM) at ₹122 per liter, and LubriEdge Metal Working Fluid (Soluble Cutting Oil) is priced at ₹112 per liter.

Crude Inventories Surge in the U.S., Demand Signals Mixed

• The global crude oil and bitumen market is currently navigating through a complex web of supply pressures and shifting demand patterns. In the last week of March, U.S. crude oil inventories surged by 6.2 million barrels to reach 493.8 million barrels, far exceeding analyst expectations. 
• This unexpected stockpile hints at weaker refinery throughput or a broader drop in consumption—both indicators of subdued demand. On the bitumen front, the markets in Singapore, South Korea, and Bahrain maintained relatively steady price levels, with minimal fluctuations, indicating a balance or stagnation in regional demand. 
• Meanwhile, India's bitumen prices witnessed a modest $5 increase on April 1, supported by local refiners possibly adjusting prices due to tighter domestic availability or logistics post-holiday. 
• With Iran’s market reopening on April 5 following the extended Nowruz and Eid holidays, a fresh wave of supply may influence price trends in South Asia and the Middle East in the coming weeks.

Global Tensions Rattle Energy Markets, Tariffs Fuel Uncertainty

• On April 2, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on imported goods from over 60 countries, reigniting fears of a global trade war. This move rattled financial markets, pulling crude oil prices down by nearly 3% on April 4, with WTI slipping from over $75 to $74.86 per barrel. 
• The trade tensions come amid slowing sales in the electric vehicle sector—most notably, a year-on-year decline of 11.5% in Tesla’s China sales for March, reflecting potential shifts in global consumer sentiment and energy transition trends. 
• Further intensifying geopolitical tensions, U.S. military operations against the Houthis continue, aimed at safeguarding maritime navigation, while Israel escalated its operations in Gaza, complicating the risk landscape for oil-producing regions. 
• European Central Bank’s Isabel Schnabel added to concerns, warning that trade disruptions and protectionist policies could heighten global inflation while stalling economic growth—directly impacting demand outlooks for petroleum products.

Market Outlook: Volatility Ahead with Iran Supply in Focus

• Looking ahead, the oil and bitumen markets are likely to remain volatile amid macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risk. Traders are expected to adopt a cautious stance until the implications of U.S. tariffs and regional conflicts become clearer. 
• Bitumen prices may experience localized adjustments as Iranian supply re-enters the market and Indian infrastructure demand remains seasonally high. Overall, sentiment remains fragile, with external pressures steering price directions more than internal fundamentals.