HDPE Market Holds Ground Amid Supply Disruptions and Weak Buying Sentiment

Key Takeaways

• Prices Stable Across Asia: HDPE prices remained unchanged across Far East, Southeast Asia, and India, with most grades holding within recent ranges. 
• India Eyes Local Restarts: Limited import offers and RIL’s price rollover point to stable sentiment; domestic restarts may ease supply constraints. 
• China’s Import Arbitrage Weak: US-origin cargoes pressure market; local buyers remain cautious amid weak yuan and price compression.
• Southeast Asia Demand Muted: Buyers stick to regional sources with faster delivery; Vietnam shows no signs of recovery in interest.
• Geopolitical Risks Keep Market Tight: Crude surges, Eid-related uncertainties, and freight costs lead producers to limit volumes cautiously.

HDPE Market Price: Week on Week Stability Remains

HDPE prices across major Asian markets remained largely steady week on week:

Far East Asia

• HDPE Film: USD 835–895/mt CFR
• HDPE Blow Moulding: USD 840–895/mt CFR
• HDPE Injection: USD 820–850/mt CFR
• HDPE Yarn: USD 880–900/mt CFR

Southeast Asia

• HDPE Film: USD 875–935/mt CFR
• HDPE Blow Moulding: USD 845–885/mt CFR
• HDPE Injection: USD 820–880/mt CFR
• HDPE Yarn: USD 915–955/mt CFR

India

• HDPE Film: USD 875–915/mt CFR
• HDPE Blow Moulding: USD 875–905/mt CFR
• HDPE Injection: USD 865–925/mt CFR
• HDPE Yarn: USD 865–905/mt CFR 

Offers from key overseas suppliers of film grade for June 2025 shipments:

1. Saudi producer to China: USD 910/mt CFR
2. Middle East to China: USD 850/mt CFR
3. Middle East to India: USD 920/mt CFR 
4. Saudi producer to India: USD 890–940/mt CFR

HDPE Demand and Supply Dynamics: Trade Slows in Asia, Indian Imports Thin

• China: Market remained cautious with a muted tone in PE import discussions due to compressed import arbitrage margins and weak yuan-denominated local prices. While some foreign suppliers reduced their offers, US-origin cargoes were aggressively priced, further limiting purchase interest.
• Southeast Asia: Demand was restrained as buyers favoured local and regional supplies due to shorter lead times. Weak sentiments prevailed, especially in Vietnam, where several suppliers saw no active buying interest.
• India: Imports stayed limited due to a shortage of fresh spot offers. Although RIL rolled over prices from June 1, upcoming restarts by local producers are likely to enhance domestic availability. Buyers stayed conservative amid seasonal demand slowdown post-summer and in anticipation of the monsoon affecting construction-related offtake. 

Feedstock: Ethylene prices were unchanged:

• CFR Southeast Asia: USD 845–855/mt
• CFR Northeast Asia: USD 775–785/mt

HDPE Market News: Rising Crude Prices, Geopolitical Tensions Impact

• Geopolitics & Crude Oil: Crude prices surged due to global geopolitical unrest and supply disruptions, raising alarm over energy security and economic stability.
• Middle East Supply Caution: Producers remained reluctant to release volumes owing to slim margins, freight costs, and upcoming Eid-related uncertainties.
• Plant Restart: PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical Yulin Chemical restarted its HDPE plant (400,000 mt/year capacity) in late May after maintenance that began on May 10.
• Domestic Update (India): RIL maintained existing HDPE prices from June 1, reflecting a wait-and-watch approach amid balanced fundamentals.

Expert Opinion: Remain Cautious

• India: Domestic supply is expected to rise with a major plant restart, potentially decreasing dependence on imports. However, replenishment from converters may support short-term demand. The onset of the monsoon is likely to cap any major demand resurgence due to delays in infrastructure projects.
• China: US-origin cargoes will continue to challenge sellers, pressuring them to either revise offers or delay shipments. Buyers are expected to remain cautious unless arbitrage improves or local prices stabilize.
• Southeast Asia: With tariff uncertainties looming and sentiment weak, markets may stay flat to soft unless regional plants reduce output or demand surprises to the upside.

Overall, while pricing has held firm, continued geopolitical risk and supply-side caution may maintain market volatility. Buyers across regions are expected to remain conservative until stronger cues emerge post Eid and monsoon seasons.