Impact of Israel-Iran Conflict on Bitumen and Oil Prices

Key Highlights

• India sees minor price dip amid weak construction demand
• Iran crisis disrupts supply chains, triggers refinery shutdowns
• Europe and China face price hikes due to rising crude costsMarket outlook remains volatile with high geopolitical risk

Bitumen and Oil Market Price Overview

• Crude Oil: $76.68/bbl
• Singapore 180 CST Fuel Oil: $468/ton
• Singapore Bitumen: $415/ton
• South Korea Bitumen: $400/ton
• Bahrain Bitumen: $400/ton (unchanged)
• Europe Bitumen: $420–$480/ton (↑ $18–$20)
• China (Shandong/East China): $501–$550/ton
• China Import (from South Korea): $435/ton
• India Bitumen (15 June):
  1. VG30 ↓ by $7
  2. VG40 ↓ by $8

Demand and Supply Analysis

• India: Demand remains weak due to early monsoon onset, reducing construction activity. The bitumen price dropped slightly due to lower domestic movement. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions could reverse this trend with potential supply chain disruptions.
• China: Despite heavy rains and storms affecting the southern regions, domestic prices surged in Shandong and East China due to higher crude prices. Still, high inventory and weak demand during the rainy season limit upside movement. The South Korean import price remains steady at $435, though future shifts are expected depending on regional developments.
• Bahrain: Prices remain unchanged but availability is limited. Rising regional demand may soon push prices higher as Middle East buyers look to secure alternative supply routes.
• Europe: The Israel-Iran war has sharply spiked Brent crude, directly impacting European bitumen prices, which climbed by $18–$20 per ton. 
• Iran: The market faces a force majeure situation. Civilian evacuations, refinery shutdowns, and port disruptions have severely limited supply. There's a critical shortage of ready stock in Bandar Abbas and Jebel Ali. Logistical and operational constraints, coupled with the threat of a war-risk surcharge, make spot purchasing highly risky.

Major News & Developments: Israel-Iran Conflict Impact

• The military escalation between Israel and Iran has severely destabilized oil and bitumen supply chains. Israel’s unilateral strikes and Iran’s missile retaliation—firing over 400 projectiles—have intensified geopolitical risk.
• 600+ casualties and widespread infrastructure destruction in Iran have shut down key refineries and export terminals. The Iranian stock exchange was temporarily closed.
• Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz—a major oil shipping chokepoint. If realized, crude oil could spike to $120/bbl, intensifying cost pressure across downstream commodities, including bitumen.
• Gold prices briefly peaked at $4,323/oz, indicating broader market volatility and capital flight to safe assets. 
• Diplomatic attempts are underway with Germany, France, and Britain planning nuclear ceasefire talks with Iran on June 20, though the U.S. has opted out for now, possibly reconsidering based on battlefield developments.

Market Expectation: Strategic Sourcing Recommended

• Bitumen and crude markets are operating under high-risk, volatile conditions. With export logistics disrupted and crude costs surging, bitumen prices are expected to remain firm or rise globally. 
• Buyers should brace for potential supply delays, increased freight costs, and tighter stock availability, especially in Middle Eastern and South Asian markets. Strategic sourcing and working with reliable, regionally-embedded suppliers is advised during this geopolitical crisis.