India Boosts U.S. Crude Imports Amid Falling Domestic Output and OPEC Share

Key Highlights

• Brent Crude fell to $67.79/bbl in April; India’s crude basket mirrored at $67.73/bbl.
   
• Russia held 36% of India’s import share; U.S. rose to 330,000 bpd, overtaking the UAE.
   
• Domestic crude production declined 3.1% YoY to 2.3 MMT.
   
• Ethanol blending reached 19.7%; LNG imports surged 21.3% amid clean fuel shift.

Petroleum Price: Brent Crude Falls Below $68/bbl

• Brent Crude Price averaged USD 67.79/bbl in April 2025, marking a decline from USD 72.60/bbl in March and USD 90.15/bbl in April 2024.
• The Indian crude basket mirrored the global trend, averaging USD 67.73/bbl, down from USD 72.47/bbl a month earlier and USD 89.44/bbl a year ago.
• India’s net oil import bill stood at USD 11.4 billion, with crude oil imports accounting for USD 10.8 billion, and LNG imports totaling USD 1.3 billion.

Demand and Supply: Domestic Oil Output Down 3.1% YoY

• Crude Oil Imports: India’s crude imports declined 1.0% YoY in April 2025. Despite the dip, India imported 4.88 million bpd on average in FY2024-25.
• Top Suppliers:

1. Russia maintained its dominance with 1.76 million bpd, commanding a 36% share.
2. The U.S. overtook the UAE, becoming the fourth-largest supplier with 330,000 bpd, up from 240,000 bpd in March.

• Domestic Production: India’s indigenous crude output dropped 3.1% YoY, totaling 2.3 MMT, as per PPAC: 
• ONGC produced 1.5 MMT, OIL added 0.3 MMT, and PSC/RSC fields contributed 0.5 MMT.
• Refinery Throughput: Indian refiners processed 21.5 MMT, marginally lower by 0.6% YoY. Of this, 15.2 MMT was handled by PSU and JV refineries, while private players processed 6.3 MMT:
• Imported crude accounted for 19.6 MMT, while domestic crude processed was just 1.9 MMT.

Market News: Ethanol Blending Hits 19.7% in April

• The U.S. surge in supply is attributed to India’s strategic imports ahead of trade talks, as state refiners like IOCL and BPCL secured over 6 million barrels for June delivery.
• OPEC’s market share in India has fallen below 50%, the lowest ever, amid India’s pivot to cheaper Russian barrels and diversification.
• Ethanol blending in petrol reached 19.7% in April, reflecting progress towards decarbonization. The cumulative blending rate since Nov 2024 stands at 18.6%.
• Total petroleum product output declined 4.2% YoY to 22.4 MMT, with diesel and motor spirit (petrol) accounting for nearly 60% of total output.
• Consumption of petroleum products fell slightly to 20.1 MMT, down 0.2% YoY. However, HSD (+4.4%), MS (+5.0%), ATF (+3.9%), and LPG (+6.2%) saw growth.
• LNG imports rose 21.3% YoY to 3,031 MMSCM, while natural gas consumption increased 9.1%, indicating a shift towards cleaner fuels.

Market Expectation: U.S. Crude to See Higher Uptake Amid Trade Talks

India’s focus on securing favorable trade terms with the U.S. is expected to sustain higher American crude purchases in the short term. Domestic crude output challenges and declining OPEC share may further boost interest in alternative suppliers like Russia and the U.S. Meanwhile, refiners may optimize throughput amid softer global prices and rising clean fuel consumption.