India’s Crude Imports Set to Rise in H2 2025 Amid Refinery Expansions and Competitive Russian Supply

Key Highlights

1. WTI at $62.69, Brent at $64.76, Murban at $64.69 – slight fluctuations in crude benchmarks.
2. Brent-Dubai EFS widened, boosting Middle East crude competitiveness.
3. India’s imports hit 5.0 mbd in March, dipped due to refinery maintenance.
4. HPCL Vizag expansion and RUF commissioning to boost throughput.
5. Barmer refinery (HRRL) to add ~100kbd demand by early 2026.

Crude Benchmarks Stable; Brent-Dubai Spread Widens

• As of the latest update, WTI Crude is trading at 62.69 USD, showing a slight increase of 0.17 USD or 0.27 percent. Brent Crude stands at 64.76 USD, up by 0.13 USD or 0.20 percent. 
• Murban Crude is priced at 64.69 USD, experiencing a minor decline of 0.09 USD or 0.14 percent. Meanwhile, Natural Gas is trading at 3.685 USD, down by 0.009 USD or 0.24 percent.
• The Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) widened in May 2025, according to Argus data. This has made Middle Eastern crude more price-competitive compared to Atlantic Basin grades.
• Russian crude continues to be available to Indian refiners at significant discounts, especially the medium sour Urals grade, further improving refining economics.
• Light sweet crude from the U.S. faces pricing competition from discounted Sokol and West African grades, lowering its appeal to Indian importers.

Indian Imports to Surge in H2 as Refineries Ramp Up

• As per the insight provided by vortexa.com, India's crude/condensate imports peaked at 5.0 mbd in March 2025, setting a record. However, imports slowed in April–May due to refinery turnarounds.
• With major Indian refineries returning to service in Q3 and increased capacity at HPCL Vizag, H2 2025 imports are projected to rise year-on-year.
• The upcoming Barmer refinery (HRRL), set to begin commissioning by end-2025, could add ~100kbd of medium/heavy sour crude demand in early 2026.
• Russia remains the top supplier, followed by rising inflows from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, driven by higher planned outputs and competitive pricing.

Market News: Capacity Expansions to Fuel Long-Term Demand Growth

• HPCL’s Vizag refinery expansion to 300kbd was completed in February and is now operating at increased throughput. The residue upgradation facility (RUF) at Vizag is expected to come online in Q3, enhancing middle distillate yields.
• MRPL’s 140kbd CDU and IOC’s 270kbd Gujarat refinery are set to resume operations by end-June and July, respectively.
• India is ramping up prompt ESPO purchases from Russia for June loading, signaling short-term import growth.

Expert Opinion: Experts Predict Diversified Import Strategy Ahead of 2026

• Ivan Mathews, Head of Market Analysis - APAC, states that "India’s crude imports will gain momentum in the second half of 2025 as refining capacity increases and turnarounds conclude". 
• Russian supplies will lead due to heavy discounts, while Middle Eastern suppliers gain ground with better Brent-Dubai spreads. Imports may diversify in 2026 as new refineries start operations.