India's Crude Imports Shift: OPEC Share Hits Record Low as Russian Oil Dominates in FY 2024-25

Key Highlight Points

• Crude Oil Prices Rise: WTI at $64.19/bbl (+0.81%), Brent at $67.89/bbl (+0.66%).
• India-Russia Crude Trade Surges: 1.76M bpd in FY25, capturing 36% market share.
• Domestic Bitumen Price: VG30 in Panipat at ₹48,612/MT; SN150 base oil in Delhi at ₹68/kg.
• Market Outlook: Uptrend continues amid Iran sanctions, inventory drawdowns, and OPEC pricing issues.

Petroleum Price: Crude and Product Price Movements

• The Indian Rupee weakened slightly against the US Dollar, trading at ₹85.34, down by ₹0.11 from the previous close of ₹85.23. Meanwhile, crude oil prices saw an uptick. 
• WTI crude rose by 0.81%, reaching $64.19 per barrel compared to the previous close of $63.67. Brent crude also edged higher by 0.66%, currently priced at $67.89 per barrel, up from $67.44 yesterday.
• Refinery Bitumen (VG30) is available in Panipat at ₹48,612 per metric ton. Roadgrip Bitumen Emulsion (RS 1) is priced at ₹33,500 per metric ton in Mathura. In Delhi, Base Oil (SN150) is being offered at ₹68 per kilogram. 
• Fuel Oil (Virgin 180cST Furnace Oil) is available in Mundra at ₹48.5 per kilogram. LubriEdge Rubber Process Oil (Paraffinic 245) is priced at ₹72 per litre in Delhi. 
• In Bhiwadi, LubriEdge Hydraulic Oil (Hydraulic Oil 68) is available at ₹87 per litre, while LubriEdge Gear Oil (Gear Oil 150) is at ₹115 per litre.
• LubriEdge Rust Preventive Oil (Water Displacing Type - WDM) is at ₹122 per litre, and LubriEdge Metal Working Fluid (Soluble Cutting Oil) is priced at ₹112 per litre.

Petroleum Demand and Supply: Russia’s Growing Share in India’s Crude Basket

• India's crude oil import landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, as the 2024-2025 fiscal year marks a historical shift in sourcing patterns, with Russia consolidating its position as India’s top crude supplier. 
• According to data compiled by Reuters, India imported an average of 1.76 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude during the year ending March 31, 2025 — a 7.3% year-on-year increase. This now accounts for 36% of India’s total crude imports, out of an average daily intake of 4.88 million bpd.
• In contrast, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) witnessed its market share fall below 50% for the first time, settling at 48.5%, largely due to falling imports from traditional suppliers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Notably, Saudi crude oil exports to India hit a 14-year low, attributed to higher Official Selling Prices (OSPs) throughout most of the fiscal year — a deterrent in an increasingly price-sensitive Indian market.
• The surge in Russian crude availability, offered at significant discounts in the aftermath of Western sanctions post-Ukraine invasion, continues to fuel demand from Indian refiners. Russian barrels, delivered via non-sanctioned vessels and priced below the $60/barrel G7-imposed price cap, offer economic attractiveness to Indian importers. Despite being an OPEC+ partner, Russia’s aggressive sales strategy has directly undermined OPEC’s traditional dominance, shifting trade flows firmly eastward.
• India's strategic move to prioritize affordability over alignment has fundamentally altered regional trade dynamics. The rise in long-haul crude transport from Russia, supported by a makeshift yet functional tanker network circumventing Western sanctions, showcases New Delhi’s adaptability in managing supply-side uncertainties while maximizing refining margins.

Market News: Domestic Refining & Fuel Oil Pricing Trends

• Crude oil markets are currently experiencing a bullish trend driven by multiple global factors. Azerbaijan’s Azeri Light crude has seen a price increase at key trading ports such as Augusta and Ceyhan, indicating positive sentiment in the energy sector. 
• In Asia, India’s crude oil imports from Russia are expected to surpass 2 million barrels per day in April, marking a two-year high, while South Korea recently received a shipment of 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Ulsan Port.
• On the geopolitical front, fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran, coupled with a significant drop in American crude inventories, have further tightened global supply, pushing oil prices higher. WTI crude climbed to around $64.18, with analysts eyeing a potential breakout above key resistance levels. 
• Brent crude also edged up, supported by trade optimism and the impact of geopolitical developments. The overall outlook remains positive as constrained supply and stronger demand continue to drive prices upward.
• Oil prices have continued their upward momentum, rising by about 1%, supported by new U.S. sanctions on Iran and a notable drop in U.S. crude inventories, which signal tightening supply conditions. This rise comes amid a more stable geopolitical climate, as U.S. President Trump eased off his criticism of the Federal Reserve, providing additional market confidence.
• Meanwhile, challenges persist in the downstream oil sector, particularly in local refinery operations. Around 60 million barrels of crude remain unsold due to inadequate supply to domestic refineries. Industry marketers emphasize that consistent and sufficient crude supply is essential to sustain local refining operations and prevent further bottlenecks in domestic fuel production.

Expert Opinion: Sanctions, Supply Tightness & Import Dynamics

• India is expected to maintain strong interest in discounted Russian barrels, especially amid global economic uncertainties and volatile freight and currency dynamics. Unless OPEC adjusts pricing strategies or enhances logistical incentives, its share in India’s crude basket may continue to erode. 
• However, geopolitical shifts or sanctions-related constraints could disrupt Russian flows, prompting a potential recalibration of sourcing patterns in the coming quarters.