India’s Iron Ore Imports Surge Amid Odisha Output Slump

Key Highlights

• Domestic iron ore production is shifting, with gains in secondary hubs like Chhattisgarh offsetting a significant 16-17% decline in Odisha's output.
• While iron ore and pellet import volumes are projected to decline, cumulative imports for CY'25 are expected to nearly double last year's volume.
• Steel prices remain under pressure, with sponge-based products trading in the ₹23,000–29,000/MT range.
• The market anticipates imports will remain crucial, with a slight downside risk until domestic production, particularly in Odisha, stabilizes.

Sponge Iron Pricing

• Sponge Iron (FeM 80%): ₹29,000/MT (Chandrapur)
• Sponge Iron (FeM 78–80%): ₹25,400/MT (Raipur)
• Sponge Pellet (FeM 78–80%): ₹23,300/MT (Raigarh)
• MS Billets (100x100 mm): ₹36,000/MT (Rourkela)

Prices remain under pressure amid weakening raw material imports and fluctuating domestic production. Sponge-based products are trading in the ₹23,000–29,000/MT range, while billet values hover around ₹36,000/MT.

Supply & Demand: Shifting Domestic Production, Elevated Imports

• Import volumes of iron ore and pellets have shown a steep declining trend since Aug-24, with projections indicating near-zero arrivals by Jul-25.
• However, cumulative imports till Sep-25 have already touched 8.6 mnt, suggesting strong short-term reliance on overseas supply.
• Imports in CY’25 may reach 10–11 mnt, nearly double last year’s 5.4 mnt.

Market News: Tight Supply but Steady Demand

• Overall iron ore output declined 2% y-o-y in Apr–Aug’25 to 114 mnt.
• Odisha production plunged 16–17%, dragging national volumes.
• Secondary hubs such as Chhattisgarh (+25%), Maharashtra (+34%), and Madhya Pradesh (+33%) offset the shortfall, indicating a geographical shift in supply sources.
• NMDC increased output, while OMC registered a 2 mnt decline y-o-y.

Expert Opinion: Potential for Reduced Import Reliance

• Imports will remain crucial in the near term as competitive landed prices support overseas sourcing. Domestic prices may stay rangebound with mild downside risk, given tight supply but steady demand.
• If Odisha stabilizes output and policy reforms kick in, domestic supply could improve, reducing dependence on imports. However, any delays in Odisha’s recovery may keep imports elevated, supporting global suppliers.