India’s PVC Market Nears Bottom; Global Outlook Remains Bearish

Key Takeaways

• Market Conditions – Weak demand in China and Europe is keeping prices under pressure. 
• Freight Rate Decline – Rotterdam-to-New York rates fell 10% to $2,500 per 40ft container, while Shanghai-to-Rotterdam rates dropped 4-6% to $3,100 per 40ft container.
• Industry Updates – Reliance Industries raised LDPE & HDPE prices by ₹1,500/MT, except for certain LDPE grades (+₹1,000/MT). Meanwhile, LLDPE & other HDPE prices remain unchanged.
• Expert View – While India’s PVC market could stabilize soon, global PVC prices may remain weak unless demand rebounds post-Lunar New Year or supply adjustments occur.

Polymer Price: PVC Prices Face Pressure Amid Weak Demand in Asia & Europe

• DAGU PVC K57 (DG700) ready material is available in Mundra at ₹73,750/MT, while HANWA PVC K67 compounded (P1000SB) is priced at ₹70,500/MT in Bhiwandi. Additionally, HYGAIN PVC K67 (HS1000R) ready material is being offered in Chennai at ₹70,250/MT.
• China’s PVC SG5 electric aggregate price range: 4,900-5,050 RMB/ton.
• European PVC prices saw moderate declines, with processors renegotiating contracts.

Demand and Supply: India’s PVC Market Nears Bottom

• The global polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market continues to face demand-side challenges, with both the Asian and European markets experiencing sluggish buying activity. 
• In China, PVC prices fluctuated within a narrow range during the first week of February, initially increasing by 50-100 RMB/ton before stabilizing due to weak fundamentals and falling crude oil prices. 
• Downstream demand in China has been gradually shrinking ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, with procurement activity primarily limited to immediate needs. This has led to a subdued market atmosphere, as traders find it difficult to improve their offers amid stable supply levels.
• In Europe, PVC prices declined slightly, influenced by weaker Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) costs and reduced order activity following the year-end holiday season. Many European processors extended their holiday breaks, limiting purchasing activity and preventing any meaningful price recovery. 
• Supply chains in Europe remained largely stable, but seasonal slowdowns kept demand subdued. The lack of urgency among buyers and the ongoing trend of supplier consolidation suggest that negotiation leverage is shifting in favor of large-volume purchasers.
• Despite stable calcium carbide prices, which offered some support to PVC prices in Asia, overall demand remains weak across major regions. Additionally, declining freight rates on key shipping routes are reducing import costs, forcing buyers to rely more on domestic supply. 
• Given the muted market sentiment and ample availability, PVC prices are expected to remain under pressure in Q1 2025 unless a significant demand revival or supply-side adjustment occurs.

Polymer News: Reliance Hikes LDPE & HDPE Prices While PVC Market Stays Bearish

• Freight rates dropped, affecting PVC import trends:
  1. Rotterdam-to-New York: 10% decline to USD 2,500 per 40ft container.
  2. Shanghai-to-Rotterdam: 4-6% drop to USD 3,1-00 per 40ft container.
• Crude oil price fluctuations impacted futures sentiment, adding downward pressure on PVC prices.
• Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) has announced a price increase for Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) and High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE), effective February 13, 2025. 
• LDPE and HDPE prices have been raised by ₹1,500 per metric ton (MT), except for certain LDPE grades, which have seen a ₹1,000 per MT increase. Meanwhile, prices for Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) and other HDPE grades have been rolled over without changes.
• TotalEnergies has declared Force Majeure on the supply of Ethylene Vinyl Acetate (EVA) from its Gonfreville, France plant, effective February 11, 2025. The facility, which has a production capacity of 40,000 tons per year, is facing unforeseen constraints impacting its ability to fulfill supply commitments.
• LG Chem has scheduled the shutdown of its Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) plant in Daesan, South Korea, for annual maintenance in April 2025. The facility, which has a production capacity of 240,000 tons per year, will temporarily halt operations during this period.

Expert Opinion: Market Nears Bottom

• It is expected that India’s PVC market is bottoming out and will see an upward trend soon. However, the global PVC market remains bearish, with demand fundamentals failing to support a price recovery. 
• Asian markets are anticipated to experience a seasonal slowdown, while Europe is likely to struggle with sluggish post-holiday demand. Any potential upside could emerge from supply-side adjustments or a surge in restocking demand post-Lunar New Year.