India to Benefit from Slumping Crude Oil Prices Amid Trade War Volatility

Key Highlights

1. Oil Prices Hit 4-Year Low: Brent crude dropped below $60/barrel amid US-China tensions and OPEC+ supply hikes.
2. India to Benefit: Lower prices may reduce import bills, inflation, and subsidy burdens—strengthening India's macroeconomic position.
3. Fuel Prices Unchanged: Despite lower crude, Indian OMCs maintain pump prices citing market volatility.
4. Outlook Remains Bearish: Crude expected to stay below $75/barrel, aiding fiscal stability and economic recovery in India.

Domestic Price Snapshot: Oil & Petroleum Rates in India

• Refinery Bitumen (VG30) is available in Panipat at ₹48,612 per metric ton. Roadgrip Bitumen Emulsion (RS 1) is priced at ₹33,500 per metric ton in Mathura. In Delhi, Base Oil (SN150) is being offered at ₹68 per kilogram. 
• Fuel Oil (Virgin 180cST Furnace Oil) is available in Mundra at ₹48.5 per kilogram. Lubriedge Rubber Process Oil (Paraffinic 245) is priced at ₹72 per litre in Delhi. 
• In Bhiwadi, LubriEdge Hydraulic Oil (Hydraulic Oil 68) is available at ₹87 per litre, LubriEdge Gear Oil (Gear Oil 150) at ₹115 per litre.
• LubriEdge Rust Preventive Oil (Water Displacing Type - WDM) at ₹122 per litre, and LubriEdge Metal Working Fluid (Soluble Cutting Oil) is priced at ₹112 per litre.

Global Trends: Crude Price Drop Reshapes Demand-Supply Balance

• As per the Moneycontrol.com, the sharp drop in global crude oil prices is altering the global supply-demand equilibrium and presenting a favorable outlook for major oil-importing economies like India. 
• With Brent crude falling below $60 per barrel—its lowest in four years—the supply side is being pressured by oversupply concerns, further exacerbated by OPEC+’s decision to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day from May onwards. 
• This increase, in the face of already weakening demand caused by the escalating US-China trade war, is adding downward pressure on prices.
• India, which imports over 85% of its crude oil requirements, stands to benefit significantly in terms of reduced import bills. 
• Lower oil prices ease input costs across manufacturing, transportation, and logistics, and help moderate inflation. 
• This creates a cascading positive effect across the economy, including lower subsidy burdens and an improved trade balance. 
• Additionally, the resulting stability in the rupee due to a better current account balance contributes to India's macroeconomic resilience.

Oil & Gas News: Lower Oil Prices a Fiscal Boon for India

• On April 9, 2025, global crude oil markets hit a four-year low following heightened tensions between the United States and China, who imposed reciprocal tariffs. 
• Despite this slump, India's state-run Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs)—IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL—have not reduced retail fuel prices, citing volatility in global oil markets as the key reason. However, experts believe the current price environment gives these OMCs the room to lower pump prices, potentially easing consumer burden and stimulating spending. 
• Moreover, the recent excise duty hike of ₹2 per litre on petrol and diesel announced by the Indian government on April 7 provides additional fiscal cushioning. 
• According to economists, every $10 per barrel drop in oil prices could improve India’s current account deficit by 30 basis points. 
• Experts from HDFC Bank and Grant Thornton Bharat have emphasized that lower oil prices not only enhance fiscal headroom but also enable the government to channel more resources toward public investment and growth, while also keeping inflation under control.

Expert Outlook: Crude to Stay Below $75 in Near Term

Crude oil prices are expected to remain below $75 per barrel in the medium term, driven by weak global demand and continued supply additions from OPEC+. For India, this presents an opportunity to reduce the import bill, moderate inflation, and potentially revise fuel prices downward—factors that could support both economic recovery and fiscal management in the months ahead.