Indian HRC Market Faces Pressure Amid Weak Demand and Oversupply Concerns

Key Highlights

• Price Snapshot: HRC ₹50,000–52,500/t; CRC ₹58,500–61,000/t; PM Plate ₹51,500–53,500/t.
• Domestic Demand: Weak, post-monsoon recovery slow; smaller mills cutting production.
• Exports: September steel exports rose 24% m-o-m to 1.07 MNT; EU and Vietnam key destinations.
• Market Sentiment: Traders cautious; inventory management and safeguard duty clarity critical.

Flat Steel Prices Hold Steady Across Major Markets

Markets reported no price changes in HRC & CRC as compared to previous day in few geographical locations . The prices of flat products in various markets are as below:

Weak Domestic Demand and Inventory Pressure Persist

• In October 2025, India's HRC market remained under pressure due to weak demand from construction and smaller steelmakers, who cut production by up to one-third amid falling margins and high inventories. 
• Trade prices hit a six-month low in September, though a gradual demand recovery is expected post-monsoon. On the supply side, production was affected by metallurgical coke shortages and cautious output from smaller mills. 
• Steel producers are also pushing for a 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports to curb cheap inflows. Despite some mills raising October HRC prices, the overall market remained loose, with mild oversupply concerns.

Flat Steel Market News: Steel Exports Surge to 1.5-Year High in September

• India's steel exports hit 1.5-year peak in Sep'25 as volumes cross 1 mnt, India's steel exports rose 24% m-o-m to 1.07 million tonnes in September 2025 — the highest since March 2024 — with volumes nearly doubling y-o-y. 
• The surge was driven by strong HRC shipments to the EU amid restocking ahead of CBAM-related cost increases, and renewed exports to Vietnam and the Middle East. In H1FY'26, total exports grew 40% y-o-y to 4.43 mnt, led by HRCs, pipes, and semi-finished steel. 
• The EU remained the top destination, with volumes up 69%. However, export growth faces headwinds from upcoming EU policy changes, including CBAM compliance and potential quota cuts.

Expert Opinion: Market Caution Prevails Amid Policy and Safeguard Duty Concerns

• The current market sentiment for hot rolled coils (HRC) in India is cautious to weak, with traders limiting purchases to immediate needs amid fears of further price drops. Distributors are under inventory pressure, offering discounts and extended credit to manage cash flow. 
• Liquidity remains tight, with many hesitant to lock up capital due to uncertain demand. Price volatility is expected, and traders anticipate potential rollbacks or rebates. Overall sentiment hinges on policy clarity, especially around safeguard duties and import restrictions, which could help stabilize the market.