Indian Methanol Import Offers Edge Higher Despite Lukewarm Demand, Bearish Global Sentiment Lingers

Key Takeaways

• Import Prices Rise Slightly: Import offers moved up by ₹1/kg across ports, reflecting mild buying support despite mixed market confidence.
• Global Benchmarks Weaken: CFR China methanol prices dropped up to $10/tonne week-on-week, continuing a bearish global trend.
• Iranian Cargo Arrivals Weigh: Expected inflow of low-cost Iranian methanol has led to hesitation among Indian bulk buyers and traders.
• Demand Remains Uneven: Pharmaceutical and formaldehyde sectors show stable demand, while others like MTBE and acetic acid stay sluggish.
• Supply Adequate at Ports: Port inventories remain sufficient, reducing urgency for aggressive restocking and contributing to subdued trading.

Chemicals Price: Import Offers Up

Import offers for methanol in India have risen by ₹1/kg amid improved buying interest.

Revised import offers are currently quoted at:

• ₹30.50++/kg (ex-Kandla)
• ₹30.75++/kg (ex-Mumbai)
• ₹31.00++/kg (ex-Hazira)
• ₹33.50++/kg (ex-Visakhapatnam; on advance payment terms)

However, trader-level quotations were mixed, reflecting subdued market sentiment:

• ₹30.00++/kg (ex-Kandla)
• ₹30.50++/kg (ex-Mumbai; on advance payment terms)

In the international market, CFR China methanol assessments softened further due to persistent inventory overhangs and bearish sentiment driven by US-China trade flow concerns.

A. 2H April 2025: $268/tonne FOB (down $10 week-on-week)
B. 1H May 2025: $269/tonne FOB (down $9 week-on-week)

Chemicals Supply & Demand: Steady to Low Demand, Supply Remains Adequate

• Methanol supply remained steady through March 2025. However, market activity slowed in the first half of April as traders and bulk buyers adopted a cautious stance following reports of significant Iranian cargo arrivals.
• Port inventories remain adequately stocked, but liquidation remains limited as buyers await potential price corrections.
• Pharmaceutical manufacturers are currently engaging in spot purchases, influenced by weaker Asian pricing benchmarks.
• Demand from the formaldehyde segment remains stable, supported by seasonal consumption patterns. In contrast, offtake from the amines, MTBE, and acetic acid sectors continues to face pressure due to sluggish downstream demand.
• India’s total methanol consumption is estimated at approximately 280 kt/month.
• Domestic Production Capacities (kt/month):
  1. GNFC: 22.39
  2. Deepak Fertilisers: 7.26
  3. Vinati Organics: 135
  4. RCF: 7.36

Chemicals Market News: Global Energy Prices Mixed

Global upstream markets presented a mixed picture:

• WTI crude oil rose 0.87% to $61.89/barrel.
• Natural gas fell 1.88% to $3.26/MMBtu.

Expert Opinion: Price Corrections Possible

Methanol prices in India are likely to remain range bound in the near term, under pressure from the arrival of low-cost Iranian cargoes. Although current sentiment is weak, any short-term recovery may be capped by muted downstream demand and bearish futures trends. Buyers are advised to exercise caution in inventory planning, as the potential for further price correction cannot be ruled out.