Indian Polymer Markets Brace for Volatility As Middle East Tensions Disrupt Supply Chains

Key Highlights

• Monsoon Slowdown: Polymer demand remains weak in India due to seasonal labor shortages and cautious restocking.
• Domestic Push: Sellers like RIL offer heavy incentives and discounts across PE, PP, and PVC to boost volumes.
• Geopolitical Impact: Strait of Hormuz disruptions and refinery damage in Iran threaten supply chains and elevate crude prices.
• BIS Certification Shift: With the June 24 deadline nearing, Indian buyers are increasingly favoring BIS-certified domestic grades.

Current Polymer Prices Across Key Grades

• XINFA PVC K67 (SG5) ready material is priced at ₹64,500/MT in Mundra. HYGain PVC K67 (HS1000R) and ASNYL PVC K67 (FJ65R) are both available at ₹67,000/MT, while LG PVC K67 compounded (LS100H) is priced at ₹69,000/MT. 
• DAGU PVC K57 (DG700) is quoted at ₹68,750/MT, and DAGU K PVC K67 (DG1000K) is at ₹68,000/MT. 
• Among PE grades, HM Films F0050D is at ₹87,000/MT, Injection Moulding M0861S at ₹87,500/MT, and PE80 P0148D at ₹88,000/MT. 
• BM B0155D is priced at ₹86,500/MT, CCM M0252S at ₹90,250/MT, Raffia R0150S at ₹89,750/MT, and Monofilament Y0154S also at ₹90,250/MT. 
• PE100 Natural P0049D is quoted at ₹88,000/MT.

Demand Weakness Amid Seasonal and Freight Disruptions

• The polymer market continues to witness cautious buying behavior as regional demand remains subdued, especially in India, due to monsoon-related slowdowns and labor shortages. Buyers are reluctant to restock aggressively amidst pricing uncertainties and shifting sourcing preferences.In India, domestic sellers like RIL are actively pushing volumes through bulk sales offers, hidden incentives, and early bird discounts to drive listings. RIL has announced incentives across PE, PP, and PVC categories, including APR-linked PVC schemes and LDPE discounts for June 2025, alongside a ₹1750/MT early bird incentive on PP and PE registered by June 16.
• On the global front, PP operating rates in China have dipped below 76%, a significant concern given the country’s dominant role in global PP supply. 
• Despite this, prices have remained stable due to subdued demand and high freight costs discouraging exports.
• Freight disruptions and delays, especially from China and Middle Eastern ports, are impacting supply flows for grades like PP Raffia, Injection, and BOPP. 
• Indian buyers are now increasingly preferring BIS-certified or domestic suppliers, avoiding uncertified imports due to the upcoming BIS compliance deadline of June 24.

Geopolitical Tensions affecting Polymer Market

• Geopolitical tensions are dominating market sentiment. The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated, with Iran reportedly shutting access to the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most crucial maritime routes. This strait handles 20–25% of global crude and a significant portion of LNG shipments.
• Reports suggest Iran’s South Pars gas field has shut, and multiple refineries are on fire, significantly impacting energy exports. In response, the U.S. and U.K. have positioned naval assets to ensure sea-lane security, raising the likelihood of military action if shipping is further threatened.
• The conflict has pushed crude oil prices to a two-month high, with WTI crude touching $75/bbl and Brent crude rising on fears of supply disruption. This surge is backed by declining U.S. crude inventories and soft inflation data, fuelling speculation of potential Fed rate cuts by September.
• BOPP prices have seen upward revision following the JPFL fire and sharp import bookings from China, Thailand, and Indonesia. However, oversupply and margin pressures in China hint at a price correction soon.

Expert Opinion: Volatility Ahead, but Domestic Realignment Underway

• Market participants anticipate continued volatility due to geopolitical risk and freight disruptions. Price stability is expected in PP and PE in the short term, with an upward bias if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. 
• Demand is likely to remain subdued until post-monsoon recovery, but BIS certification compliance may shift sourcing strategies in India further toward domestic suppliers.