Indian Steel Imports Hit Record Highs, Potential Duties May Impact TMT Pricing

Primary TMT prices have risen across major regions as demand stabilizes. Despite initial buyer resistance, rising expectations for future price hikes have led to increased acceptance of current rates. Meanwhile, India's record-high finished steel imports are prompting potential government action to protect the domestic industry, potentially impacting the future TMT market.

Key Insights

  • Price Levels: Mumbai and Delhi NCR prices reach Rs. 55,500-56,000/mt; Vizag prices at Rs. 53,500-54,000/mt.
  • Demand & Supply Dynamics: Buyer acceptance of higher prices is increasing, with supply still constrained by SAIL plant maintenance.
  • Import Concerns: Finished steel imports at a seven-year peak, with China as the main supplier; potential safeguard duty under government consideration.
  • Expected Price Hike: Distributors predict further price increases due to supply shortages, with demand remaining steady and inquiries increasing month-on-month.

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Primary TMT Prices

  • Prices are as follows: (12 to 32mm) Ex-Mumbai: Rs. 55,500-56,000/mt Ex-Delhi NCR: Rs. 55,500-56,000/mt Ex-Vizag: Rs. 53,500 - 54,000/mt Note - Distributors across North, West and South have increased prices. Above pricing is based on the same.

Primary TMT Demand & Supply

  • Customers' dissatisfaction with the price resulted in a lower conversion percentage than the demand. As they expect more price hikes in the coming days, buyers have now accepted the market prices and are willing to pay more for materials. The prices will level off once the SAIL ISP facility starts up.

Primary TMT News

  • India's finished steel imports reached a seven-year high of 5.7 million mt during April-October 2024, as per government data. This trend marks India's continued status as a net importer since FY 2023-24, with China leading exports to India. In response, the steel ministry is considering a safeguard duty or temporary tax to control the rising imports.

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Expert Opinion

  • Demand in the market seems to be stable, and there have been more inquiries than there were a month ago. Material is in low supply because the SAIL plant is under maintenance. Due to the scarcity of resources, the distributors expect substantial price hikes.

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