Indian Steel Market Faces Festive Lull; Prices Under Pressure Amid High Inventories and Weak Demand

Key Highlights

1. TMT and flat steel prices dropped further amid festive-season slowdown.
2. Composite steel index hit a five-year low on weak demand and high stocks.
3. SAIL and Tata Steel shares gained on strong investor sentiment.
4. Post-Diwali demand expected to rise modestly, limiting further price falls.

TMT and Flat Steel Prices Reflect Festive-Season Weakness

• Primary TMT (Fe 500D) from leading mills in Durgapur was assessed at ₹44,500/MT on 24 October 2025, for sizes ranging from 12mm to 32mm. 
• Sangam Fe 550D TMT was quoted at ₹42,500/MT in Chandrapur and ₹40,500/MT in Wardha for 12–25mm dimensions as of 28 October 2025. 
• Meanwhile, Speed Fe 500 TMT from Raipur was priced lower at ₹40,011/MT for similar dimensions. 
• Trade-level BF rebar prices slipped by ₹100/t to ₹46,800/t ex-Mumbai, as primary mills offered discounts amid weak sentiment.
• IF rebar prices remained largely steady but saw limited trade during the Diwali lull.
• Flat steel prices continued their downtrend — HRC fell to ₹48,000/t and CRC to ₹55,500/t (ex-Mumbai, excluding GST).
• Leading mills had earlier cut HRC/CRC list prices by ₹750–1,500/t in early October.
• Festive holidays further slowed market activity, with most participants reporting minimal inquiries and cautious buying behavior.

Demand–Supply: High Inventories and Weak Demand Pressure Steel Market

• The Indian steel market remained under pressure through the festive period as high inventories and sluggish demand weighed on trade-level prices.
• Composite steel index declined 0.5% w-o-w, reaching a five-year low.
• Flat steel prices fell 0.2% w-o-w, while long steel (TMT/Rebar) dropped 0.8% w-o-w, marking continued weakness since early October.
• Finished steel production continues to expand faster than consumption, leading to a domestic supply glut despite 8% y-o-y growth in demand.

Market News: Global Trade Talks and Stock Rally Drive Steel Sector Buzz

• India and the European Union have agreed that further discussions are required on key issues such as steel, automobiles, and the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which remain major points of contention in the ongoing trade deal negotiations.
• Steel Authority of India Ltd. (SAIL) hit a new 52-week high of ₹143.2, signaling strong momentum in the ferrous metals sector and outperforming its industry peers. 
• The company also saw heavy trading activity with over 53 million shares exchanged and a 15.39% surge in open interest to 72,183 contracts, indicating strong investor participation and bullish sentiment.
• Tata Steel’s share price gained over 2% after it entered a long-term contract with Air Water India Pvt. Ltd. Analysts remain optimistic, with a price target of ₹400 for the next two years, reflecting a positive long-term outlook for the stock.

Market Expectations: Post-Festive Uptick Expected Amid Persistent Price Headwinds

• Post-Diwali, construction activity and infrastructure demand are expected to gradually improve, providing limited near-term support. However, global overcapacity, dumping risks, and high domestic stock levels are likely to cap any sharp price recovery in Q4CY’25.Sentiment remains watchful but cautious, with traders expecting only a modest rebound once seasonal demand returns.