Iran Talks, Tariffs, and Weather Shape Global Crude, Oil & Bitumen Outlook

Key Highlights

• Brent crude held at $66–68/bbl; Singapore fuel oil at $420/MT.
• Bitumen prices steady: Singapore $420/MT, South Korea $408/MT, Bahrain $400/MT, Europe $380–430/MT.
• India’s demand subdued by monsoon; Europe weak on summer slowdown.
• U.S. tariffs, JCPOA talks, and Middle East conflicts add volatility.

Crude Oil & Bitumen Prices Stay Stable Across Key Regions

• Crude Oil: Brent crude remained stable at $66–68/bbl, supported by supply risks from Russia–Ukraine drone attacks.
• Fuel Oil: Singapore’s 180 CST closed at $420/MT.
• Bitumen:
  1. Singapore: $420/MT
  2. South Korea: $408/MT
  3. Bahrain: $400/MT (unchanged)
  4. Europe: $380–430/MT (slight drop due to summer holidays)
  5. India: Prices largely stable, with only a marginal $2 increase last week.

India, China, and Europe See Muted Demand Amid Seasonal Slowdowns

• India: Demand remained muted due to monsoon-related slowdown in construction. Limited spot activity, though small purchase requests from Iran continued.
• China: Heavy rainfall in northern regions and weak consumption in eastern and southern markets kept activity stagnant, repeating last week’s trend. 
• Europe: Seasonal holidays reduced construction activity, leading to softer demand and weaker price ranges.
• Global Supply: Despite U.S. tariffs on Indian imports, India continued buying Russian crude, reducing fears of short-term supply disruptions. 

Tariffs, Sanctions, and Conflicts Continue to Disrupt Energy Trade

• Iran & Europe: Ongoing negotiations regarding the JCPOA Snapback Mechanism could determine whether UN sanctions return, adding volatility to Iran’s trade outlook.
• U.S. Tariffs: President Trump raised tariffs on Indian goods up to 50% (including an earlier 25% penalty on Russian oil purchases), straining India–U.S. trade relations. 
• Middle East Conflicts: Israel–Hamas conflict continues with no resolution, while the Russia–Ukraine war further disrupts energy infrastructure.
• Iran Logistics: Domestic loading delays and container shortages pushed shipping costs higher, complicating exports.

Market Outlook: Stable Near-Term, Recovery Expected Post-September

• Crude Oil: Prices may remain range-bound ($66–68) unless further escalation in geopolitical risks or supply disruptions occur.
• Bitumen:
  1. India: Demand likely to stay subdued until the monsoon ends; modest recovery expected post-September.
  2. China: Weak consumption trends may persist given rainfall and economic slowdown.
  3. Europe: Activity should rebound after summer holidays, potentially stabilizing prices.
  4. Iran: Market direction hinges on upcoming European decisions on sanctions, which could significantly shift export flows and shipping costs.