Low Demand Keeps Primary TMT Prices Negotiable Despite Sufficient Supply

Primary TMT prices remain stable across regions. Despite sufficient supply, demand has remained low, with buyers hesitant to close deals. Distributors are engaging in price negotiations due to high inventory levels. Meanwhile, analysts project higher demand and profitability for steel companies in Q3FY25, driven by cost efficiency and stable input prices.

Key Takeaways

  • Primary TMT Prices: Current prices are Rs. 55,500–56,000/mt in Mumbai and Delhi NCR, and Rs. 53,500–54,000/mt in Vizag.
  • Demand Stagnation: Buyer activity remains low as distributors face challenges converting inquiries into sales, leading to aggressive price negotiations.
  • Steel Market Outlook: Analysts predict a recovery in Q3FY25 for steel companies due to rising long steel prices and reduced coking coal costs.
  • Supply Balance: Abundant material availability among distributors has kept the supply-demand equation stable, despite moderate demand.

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Primary TMT Prices

  • Prices are as follows (size 12 to 32mm): Ex-Mumbai: Rs. 55,500-56,000/mt Ex-Delhi NCR: Rs. 55,500-56,000/mt Ex-Vizag: Rs. 53,500-54,000/mt
  • Note - Distributors across North, West and South have increased prices. Above pricing is based on the same.

Primary TMT Demand & Supply

  • Due to the low volume of inquiries and the poor conversion rate caused by buyers who are in a bargaining mode, the market appears to be stagnant. Since there is an abundance of material available for the distributors, they are willing to engage in significant price negotiations.

Primary TMT News

  • Steel companies may see higher demand and profitability in Q3FY25, driven by rising long steel prices, stable flat steel prices, and a $25/mt drop in coking coal costs, according to Centrum.
  • In Q2FY25, steel firms reported a 3% EBITDA decline due to reduced realisation, partially offset by lower raw material costs. Non-ferrous earnings improved 3-20% QoQ, supported by cost efficiency despite falling aluminium and zinc prices.

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Expert Opinion

  • The distributors were expecting a price increase because the SAIL ISP facility was undergoing maintenance. However, demand appears to be moderate and material availability is not a problem, therefore the demand growth has decreased. Supply and demand appear to be balanced. There is currently no indication that demand will rise.

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