Mixed Signals in Acrylonitrile Market Amid Global Demand Shifts and Automotive Growth

Key Highlights:

1. Price Trends: Prices varied across regions, with $1,310/ton in South Asia and $1,500/ton in Europe reflecting regional dynamics.
2. Demand Challenges: Weak demand from paints and coatings offsets growth from the automotive sector, fueled by a 9.3% rise in vehicle sales.
3. Supply Shifts: Stable production contrasts with declining export rates and reduced feedstock Ammonia demand.
4. Market Outlook: Acrylonitrile prices are expected to decline by 1.8%-2% in early 2025, with recovery anticipated in March as post-winter demand strengthens.

Chemicals Price: Global Acrylonitrile Price Trends

• The price in the Chinese domestic market stood at 10,400 Yuan/MT on January 15, with a recorded change of 33.33 Yuan/MT. 
• In East China, prices were noted at 11,100 Yuan/MT, while East China port prices for Acrylonitrile GB were slightly lower at 10,950 Yuan/MT.
• In the United States, the FOB price for Acrylonitrile was $1,265/ton on January 14, while in the U.S. Gulf, prices were quoted at 66.75 cents/lb.
• In Asia, prices held steady, with the Far East and Southeast Asia CFR Acrylonitrile both priced at $1,280/ton as of January 14. Similarly, South Asia CFR Acrylonitrile was recorded at $1,310/ton.
• In the European market, Northwest Europe CIF Acrylonitrile was priced at a higher level of $1,500/ton on January 14, reflecting stronger regional market dynamics.

Chemicals Demand and Supply: Stability Meets Weakness

• During the first half of January 2025, Acrylonitrile prices in North America exhibited stability, despite weakened global demand. Production levels in December 2024 remained steady, even as feedstock Ammonia demand softened due to reduced activity in the fertilizer sector and falling feedstock costs. Export rates of Acrylonitrile also declined, reflecting subdued international demand.
• The paints and coatings industry reported moderate demand for Acrylonitrile, particularly for acrylic resin production, as the sector underwent restructuring. The transition toward green building materials and eco-friendly coatings contributed to reduced demand. 
• The U.S. paints and coatings industry faced challenges in 2024, marked by events such as the closure of Kelly-Moore Paints after decades of operations, stemming from financial pressures and supply chain disruptions.
• Conversely, the automotive sector provided a positive offset, with Acrylonitrile orders from NBR Industries increasing, driven by a notable 9.3% rise in total vehicle sales in December. 
• Strong demand and robust year-over-year growth in vehicle production, particularly from leading manufacturers such as GM, Stellantis, and Tesla, supported this uptick.

Chemicals News: Key Industry Updates and Developments

• Strong demand from China, driven by lower import material costs compared to domestic cargo, led to an increase in December exports.
• SKW Piesteritz any has indefinitely closed its ammonia plant, citing government policies and the influx of cheap Russian fertilizers into Europe. SKW Piesteritz has called for abolishing the gas storage levy and a return to pre-2022 energy cost levels.
• The latest round of US sanctions targeting Russian oil producers and vessels has raised concerns in India’s oil market regarding rising costs, though no immediate supply threats are anticipated.
• The Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) market in the USA maintained price stability throughout December 2024 and into early January 2025. However, demand challenges continue to affect the market outlook.
• The Maleic Anhydride market displayed varied trends in early January 2025 across key regions, with stability observed in Germany, while prices declined in the US and China due to shifts in demand and supply dynamics.

Expert Opinion: Challenges and Opportunities in 2025

• The Acrylonitrile market is projected to experience a mixed trend in H1 2025. Prices are expected to decline by 1.8%-2% in January due to seasonal factors and reduced operating rates, with additional downward pressure in February caused by the winter demand slowdown and the Chinese New Year holidays Recovery is anticipated starting in March, with prices expected to rebound as post-winter demand strengthens and manufacturing activity improves.