Nickel and Copper Open Lower; Stainless Steel Demand Picks Up in 200 Series

Key Takeaways

• Price Trends: 304 CR wide base price ranges from Rs 195-198/kg; 201 series imports face Rs 165-167/kg retail pricing, plus GST.
• Demand Shifts: SS 300 and 400 series demand is improving, while 200 series demand remains robust due to limited imports.
• Global Impact: LME nickel volumes rebounded to pre-crisis levels; December copper imports in China rose 18% YoY.
• Market Dynamics: Indonesia’s stainless steel exports to China declined 29.35% YoY, signalling challenges in destocking inventory.
• Expert Opinion: USD strength may push 300 series prices higher, while the 200 series benefits from import restrictions.

Stainless Steel Price:

• Nickel opened today down by 0.82% at $15,795/mt, while Copper opened today down by 0.47% at $9,111/mt.
• INR opened today against USD at 86.53/-.
• Current retail price for 304 CR wider 2B is now running approximately at Rs.195-198/kg basic price range, ex-Delhi, while for narrow, it is approximately Rs.3-5/kg cheaper, plus GST.
• SS 316L HR imported material is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.318-322/kg for HR wider. Indian material is expensive by Rs.5-10/kg. For CR wider, the rates are Rs.10/kg higher than HR.
• SS 201 imported CR 2B (extra low thicknesses like 0.26mm) is being retailed at Rs. 165-167/kg, ex-Delhi, plus GST. Domestic 201 (cheapest grade) is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.143-145/- base price (plus thickness difference extra), plus GST.

Stainless Steel Demand and Supply:

• Demand is slightly getting better in 300 series, but not that much, due to cash crunch.
• In 400 series also, demand is seen to be increasing.
• 200 series demand has further increased and is upbeat, due to lack of imported material.
• No.4 PVC material demand is still on the rise as expected, both in 200 and 300 series, as observed in the past few months.

Stainless Steel News:

• After stabilizing in early December 2024, nickel prices remained steady, while iron ore prices rose above $100/MT due to improved sentiment in China's steel industry, boosting HRC prices since last Thursday.
• The London Metal Exchange (LME) fully recovered from its 2022 nickel crisis, with 2024 trading volumes up 18.2% YoY, marking the strongest activity since 2015. Nickel volumes rose 58.8%, returning to pre-crisis levels seen in 2021.
• Copper prices hit a one-month high, driven by optimism about global growth and China’s increased imports.
• Benchmark copper on the LME reached $9,115/MT, with December imports up 18% YoY to 559,000 MT.
• In November 2024, Indonesia exported 145,500 MT of stainless steel to China, up 18.81% MoM but down 29.35% YoY. Total exports surpassed 400,000 MT, reaching 415,500 MT. However, China’s stainless steel market struggled due to slow inventory destocking and off-season demand, with warehouse stockpiles increasing.

Expert Opinion

• SS 300 series prices are expected to rise in the current scenario, since USD is high.
• SS 400 series prices are also expected to remain on the steeper side, because of the BIS issue.
• SS 200 series is also expected to perform very well domestically, as imports are almost halts.