Nickel and Copper Prices Decline; Demand for Stainless Steel Improves

Price

• Nickel opened today down by 1.4% at $17,655/ton, while copper opened down by 0.96% at $9,698/ton.
• The INR opened today against the USD at 84.08/-.
• The current retail price for 304 CR wider 2B is approximately Rs.198-201/kg (basic price range, ex-Delhi), while for narrow, it is approximately Rs.3-5/kg cheaper, plus GST.
• SS 316L imported material is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.320-324/kg for HR wider. Indian material is more expensive by Rs.5-10/kg. For CR wider, the rates are Rs.10/kg higher than HR. SS 201 imported CR 2B (extra low thicknesses like 0.26mm) is being retailed at Rs.143-148/kg, ex-Delhi, plus GST.
• Domestic 201 (the cheapest grade) is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.140-143/- (base price plus thickness difference extra), plus GST.

Demand and Supply:

• Demand is slightly better for 304 & 316L (CR & HR) in generic sizes compared to the previous three months.
• There is not much demand for ferritic grades, except for some railway fabrication usage in 409M/X2CrNi12/IRSM 44-97 grades.
• Good demand is being observed for No.4/Matte PVC finish in 201 grades, due to short supply from domestic players and the non-renewal of BIS for imported material.
• Decent demand is also being noted for 304 narrow sizes for applications like pipes and tubes or rerolling usages, due to short supply in imported material.

News

• Acerinox, a Spanish stainless steel manufacturer, has signed a US$95 million agreement to sell its Bahru Stainless Sdn Bhd in Malaysia to Worldwide Stainless. The deal is expected to close by November 2024. CEO Bernardo Velázquez Herreros stated that this strategic decision aims to protect the interests of employees, customers, and the community. The decision to cease operations at Bahru Stainless was made after suffering significant losses due to competition from Chinese manufacturers.
• On October 2, 2024, Brazil’s Ministry of Development launched a second review of the anti-dumping duty investigation on imports of stainless steel cold-rolled sheets from China and Taiwan. The review covers sheets between 0.35mm and 4.75mm thick for austenitic stainless steel types 304 and ferritic type 430. The investigation period is January to December 2023, requested by Aperam Inox America do Sul. Interested parties have 30 days to respond to the survey.
• France's TotalEnergies is considering entering the copper trading market to expand its operations into the metals sector. Senior VP Rahim Azouni stated they are “studying the case” for trading copper but have not yet made a decision. This move follows Vitol's expansion into metals trading earlier this year. With the global energy transition and increased demand for metals like nickel, cobalt, aluminum, and copper, TotalEnergies aims to capitalize on market opportunities.
• On October 10, the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel futures price rose by US$170/ton, closing at US$17,541/ton. The nickel spot price increased by US$184/ton to US$17,289/ton, while LME nickel inventory dropped by 60 tons to 132,312 tons. Despite a strong US dollar, the Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% in September, exceeding predictions. Analysts foresee a potential 25 basis point cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in November, amid nickel price volatility.
• The Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC) revealed a growing global overcapacity in steel production, leading to calls for urgent measures. EUROFER's Director General, Axel Eggert, warned that this surplus is distorting markets and threatening European jobs. He urged for a comprehensive strategy to address the situation. The projected global steel overcapacity could reach 630 million metric tons by 2026, significantly impacting Europe’s steel industry and decarbonization efforts.
• The US exported approximately 1.63 million tons of scrap in August, a 28% increase from July and a 12% rise year-on-year, according to the US International Trade Commission. Turkey received the largest share at around 578,000 tons, up 56% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year. Other major buyers included Bangladesh, Mexico, and Taiwan, with exports of approximately 296,000 tons, 185,000 tons, and 110,000 tons, respectively. Total export value reached US$679 million, up 24% month-on-month.

Expert Opinion

• Both 304 & 316L are expected to have a medium to good run this week, owing to the slight raw material price increase.
• The 400 series is continuing its dull run due to the lack of demand for ferritic grades.
• The 200 series is still performing strongly in special finishes like N4P (Matte PVC) & N8P (Mirror PVC), owing to the lack of imported products in the market.