Nickel, Copper Down as US Tariffs Shake Up Steel Market

Key Takeaways

• Price Trends: Nickel dropped 1.28% to $15,790/MT; Copper fell 1.96% to $9,511/MT. 304 CR 2B is at Rs 199-200/kg; 316L HR imported at Rs 320-323/kg.
• Demand Outlook: 300 and 400 series demand is gradually improving, while the 200 series remains strong due to an ongoing shortage of imported material.
• Global Trade Impact: The US has imposed new steel tariffs, while Vietnam has introduced anti-dumping duties.
• Price Forecast: 300 series prices may rise due to high USD, 400 series will remain firm with BIS issues, and 200 series demand is expected to stay strong.

Stainless Steel Price:

• Nickel opened today down by 1.28% at $15,790/MT, while Copper opened today down by 1.96% at $9,511/MT.
• INR opened today against USD at 85.57/-.
• Current retail price for 304 CR wider 2B is now running approximately at Rs.199-200/kg basic price range, ex-Delhi, while for narrow, it is approximately Rs.3-5/kg cheaper, plus GST.
• SS 316L HR imported material is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.320-323/kg for HR wider. Indian material is expensive by Rs.5-10/kg. For CR wider, the rates are Rs.10/kg higher than HR.
• SS 201 imported CR 2B (extra low thicknesses like 0.26mm) is being retailed at Rs. 165-167/kg, ex-Delhi, plus GST. Domestic 201 (cheapest grade) is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.143-145/- base price (plus thickness difference extra), plus GST.
• Indian flat stainless steel producers are buying scrap after the service of the finished-goods at the following latest prices (plus GST):-
• 304: Rs.1,27,886/MT
• 316L: Rs.2,25,065/MT
• J5 Patta: Rs.72,000/MT
• J8 Patta: Rs.70,000/MT
• 430: Rs.56,317/MT

Stainless Steel Demand and Supply:

• Demand for the 300 series is showing slight improvement, though not significantly, due to ongoing cash flow challenges.
• The 400 series is also witnessing a gradual rise in demand.
• The 200 series remains strong, driven by a shortage of imported material.
• No.4 PVC material demand continues to rise across both the 200 and 300 series, a trend that has been consistently observed over the past few months.

Stainless Steel News:

• The US imposed new tariffs of 17%-49% on select countries, plus a 10% import tariff starting April 5. Additional tariffs of 20%-46% on China, the EU, and others take effect April 9, with a 25% tariff on foreign cars starting April 3. These measures could worsen inflation.
• Vietnam will impose temporary anti-dumping duties on galvanized steel from China (37.13%) and South Korea (13.7%-15.67%) starting April 15. The investigation, initiated by five major steelmakers, will last 120 days.
• Indonesia now produces over 50% of global nickel, expected to reach 63% by 2030. Nickel refining is also concentrated in Indonesia and China, raising concerns over supply security and pricing for India's clean energy goals.
• US steel and aluminium already under Section 232 tariffs won’t face new duties. Gold and copper are also exempt.
• The Latin American steel industry, employing 1.4 million, faces risks due to US steel tariffs. Chinese steel exports surged, further pressuring the region. ALACERO urges regional cooperation with the US to counter unfair competition.
• US steel tariffs are causing job losses in Canada, with 200 layoffs already. The United Steelworkers union fears up to 100,000 members could be impacted.
• The recycled steel market, which saw strong Q1 prices, may slow in April due to winter supply constraints and shifting trade policies. US processors trading with Canada and Mexico are particularly concerned.

Expert Opinion:

• 300 series prices are expected to rise in the current scenario, since USD is high.
• 400 series prices are expected to stay high due to the BIS issue.
• 200 series is also anticipated to do very well domestically due to limited imports.