Nickel, Copper Open Higher; Stainless Steel Prices Firm

Key Takeaways

• Market Prices: LME Nickel opened 0.71% higher at $15,700/mt, while copper opened 0.48% higher at $9,403/mt. Stainless steel prices remain steady across grades.
• Demand Trends: The 200 series sees strong demand due to import shortages, while the 300 and 400 series show slight improvements.
• Expert Outlook: Prices for the 300 and 200 series are expected to rise due to currency fluctuations and limited imports, while the 400 series remains high.
• Trade Developments: India and the UK have resumed free trade talks, aiming to boost trade volume significantly over the next decade.
• Tariff Impact: The U.S. is considering a 25% copper tariff, while new steel and aluminium tariffs will hit 4.7% of Mexican exports.

Stainless Steel Price:

• Nickel opened today up by 0.71% at $15,700/mt, while Copper opened today up by 0.48% at $9,403/mt.
• INR opened today against USD at 87.36/-.
• Current retail price for 304 CR wider 2B is now running approximately at Rs.197-199/kg basic price range, ex-Delhi, while for narrow, it is approximately Rs.3-5/kg cheaper, plus GST.
• SS 316L HR imported material is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.318-322/kg for HR wider. Indian material is expensive by Rs.5-10/kg. For CR wider, the rates are Rs.10/kg higher than HR.
• SS 201 imported CR 2B (extra low thicknesses like 0.26mm) is being retailed at Rs. 165-167/kg, ex-Delhi, plus GST. Domestic 201 (cheapest grade) is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.143-145/- base price (plus thickness difference extra), plus GST.

Stainless Steel Demand and Supply:

• The cash constraint is causing demand in the 300 series to marginally improve, but not significantly.
• Demand in the 400 series is also seen to be rising.
• Due to the lack of imported material, demand in the 200 series has climbed even more and is optimistic.
• As anticipated, No. 4 PVC material demand has continued to increase in recent months for both the 200 and 300 series.

Stainless Steel News:

• Madrid-based stainless steel producer Acerinox reported a 2024 profit of €225 million ($234 million), down 1% from 2023, despite an 18% drop in revenue to €5.41 billion. The company operates melt shops in Europe and the U.S., including the North American Stainless (NAS) mill in Kentucky, where its $244 million expansion remains on schedule.
• India and the UK have resumed free trade talks after a year, aiming to double or triple their $20 billion trade within a decade. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and UK Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds announced the negotiations in New Delhi. India and the EU are also planning a trade and technology council to address issues like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
• On Feb. 25, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order launching a national security probe into copper imports, with potential tariffs of up to 25%. Experts see this as targeting China, the largest copper producer and consumer. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro stated the U.S. aims to boost domestic copper production by 70% to reduce foreign dependence.
• A new U.S. steel and aluminum tariff taking effect on March 12 will impact 4.7% of Mexican exports, worth $22.5 billion (1.5% of Mexico’s GDP). The hardest-hit sectors include iron, steel, aluminum, auto parts, appliances, and electronics. IMCO predicts the auto industry will suffer the most, as the affected goods made up $20 billion in 2024 exports to the U.S. (3.91% of total exports).
• Indonesian nickel ore prices rose on Friday, with 1.2% Ni ore up 4% and 1.6% Ni ore up 3.4%. Nickel pig iron prices also rose 1%. The nickel industry faces challenges like mining quotas and declining ore quality, forcing some smelters to import from the Philippines, which plans a nickel export ban in mid-2025.

Expert Opinion:

• In the current situation, 300 series prices are anticipated to increase due to the high USD.
• 400 series prices are expected to stay high due to the BIS issue.
• 200 series is also anticipated to do very well domestically due to limited imports.