Nickel, Copper Rise; Global Trade Moves and Raw Material Costs Shape Stainless Outlook

Key Takeaways

• Nickel and Copper Prices Rise: Nickel opened 0.76% higher and copper surged 4.19%, adding cost pressure on steel manufacturing.
• 200 Series Remains Strong: Shortage of imports continues to boost demand and confidence in the 200 series.
• 300 Series Sees Slow Recovery: High input costs and cash flow issues are limiting significant demand improvement for the 300 series.
• Global Trade Actions Impact Outlook: US tariffs, Australian countermeasures, and Asian supply shifts are expected to shape future stainless pricing.

Stainless Steel Price:

• Nickel opened today up by 0.76% at $14,530/MT, while Copper opened today up by 4.19% at $8,974/MT.
• INR opened today against USD at 86.04/-.
• Current retail price for 304 CR wider 2B is now running approximately at Rs.199-200/kg basic price range, ex-Delhi, while for narrow, it is approximately Rs.3-5/kg cheaper. Plus GST.
• SS 316L HR imported material is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.320-323/kg for HR wider. Indian material is expensive by Rs.5-10/kg. For CR wider, the rates are Rs.10/kg higher than HR.
• SS 201 imported CR 2B (extra low thicknesses like 0.26mm) is being retailed at Rs. 165-167/kg, ex-Delhi, plus GST. Domestic 201 (cheapest grade) is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.143-145/- base price (plus thickness difference extra), plus GST.
• Indian flat stainless steel producers are buying scrap after the service of the finished-goods at the following latest prices (plus GST):-
• 304: Rs.1,27,886/ MT
• 316L: Rs.2,25,065/ MT
• J5 Patta: Rs.72,000/ MT
• J8 Patta: Rs.70,000/ MT
• 430: Rs.56,317/ MT

Stainless Steel Demand and Supply:

• The cash constraint is causing demand in the 300 series to marginally improve, but not significantly.
• Demand in the 400 series is also seen to be rising. 
• Due to the lack of imported material, demand in the 200 series has climbed even more and is optimistic.
• As anticipated, No. 4 PVC material demand has continued to increase in recent months for both the 200 and 300 series.

Stainless Steel News:

• Walsin Lihwa reported March revenue of NT$15.34 billion, up 0.9% YoY but down 0.6% from February. Q1 revenue hit NT$44.88 billion, up 10.7% YoY, driven by copper prices, stainless steel hikes, and DMV inclusion. Stainless steel prices rose NT$4,000 for April despite falling nickel prices.
• Australia plans to strengthen anti-dumping measures after the US imposed a 17.01% duty on its steel and a 10% tariff on other goods. It will invest A$50 million and offer A$1 billion in interest-free loans to help local exporters counter trade diversion risks.
• Trump’s 50% tariffs on Chinese goods took effect April 9, raising total US tariffs to 104%. China and the EU plan retaliation, with the EU's first tariffs set for April 15. US stocks rose 3% on hopes for talks as 70 countries seek negotiations.
• India extended countervailing duties on copper rods from four Southeast Asian nations for five years. Indonesia faces 3.75%–7.94%, Malaysia 10.27% (except Metrod Malaysia), Thailand 3.46%, and Vietnam 7.13%, under tariff code 7408.
• Singapore’s NatSteel has shut its 750,000 MT/year EAF melt shop for 2025 but continues rolling operations. Scrap prices were SGD 280/MT on March 27. The firm recycles 50,000 MT monthly and supplies rebar and semi-finished products.

Expert Opinion:

• 300 series prices are likely to see an upward trend due to the high USD exchange rate.
• Prices for the 400 series are also expected to stay elevated, influenced by the BIS issue.
• 200 series is also expected to do very well domestically due to limited imports.