Nickel Prices Down While Copper Rise; Stainless Steel Demand Picks Up

Key Takeaways

• Stainless Steel Prices: 304 CR wider: Rs. 195-198/kg; 316L HR imported: Rs. 318-322/kg, ex-Delhi. Domestic 201 CR: Rs. 143-145/kg, plus GST.
• Demand Trends: SS 300 series demand is slightly better; 200 series upbeat due to import constraints. No.4 PVC material demand continues to rise.
• Policy Impacts: Indonesia extended anti-dumping duties on flat-rolled steel imports for five years. EUROFER proposed stricter EU import safeguards to manage declining demand.
• Expert Insights: SS 300 and 400 series prices expected to rise; 200 series likely to remain strong due to limited imports.

Stainless Steel Price:

• Nickel opened today down by 0.16% at $15,640/mt, while Copper opened today up by 0.23% at $9,112/mt.
• INR opened today against USD at 86.38/-.
• Current retail price for 304 CR wider 2B is now running approximately at Rs.195-198/kg basic price range, ex-Delhi, while for narrow, it is approximately Rs.3-5/kg cheaper, plus GST.
• SS 316L HR imported material is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.318-322/kg for HR wider. Indian material is expensive by Rs.5-10/kg.
• For CR wider, the rates are Rs.10/kg higher than HR. SS 201 imported CR 2B (extra low thicknesses like 0.26mm) is being retailed at Rs. 165-167/kg, ex-Delhi, plus GST. Domestic 201 (cheapest grade) is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.143-145/- base price (plus thickness difference extra), plus GST.

Stainless Steel Demand and Supply:

• Demand is slightly getting better in 300 series, but not that much, due to cash crunch.
• In 400 series also, demand is seen to be increasing.
• 200 series demand has further increased and is upbeat, due to lack of imported material.
• No.4 PVC material demand is still on the rise as expected, both in 200 and 300 series, as observed in the past few months.
• China’s stainless steel market has improved due to rising nickel prices and demand growth in the US automotive industry. Germany’s industrial production recovery has further boosted global market sentiment. These trends point to continued demand growth.

Stainless Steel News:

• The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel futures price rose by US$31/mt to US$15,482/mt on January 9. Nickel spot prices also increased by US$45/mt to US$15,272/mt. LME nickel inventory dropped by 1,056 mt to 164,310 mt. Despite a strong US dollar, nickel prices climbed due to Indonesia’s plans to reduce nickel ore quotas, rising Chinese stainless steel futures, and declining LME inventories. However, with sluggish demand, short-term nickel price fluctuations are expected.
• In January 2025, China’s National Development and Reform Commission introduced policies to boost stainless steel demand through equipment upgrades and recycling. Stainless steel consumption is forecasted to grow by 3.5% to 27.07 million mt in 2025. Key industries, including home appliances and electronics, will benefit from these measures, with high-end, smart, and green applications leading the way.
• Shyam Metalics and Energy Ltd. (SMEL) reported a 59% year-on-year increase in stainless steel production to 7,889 mt in December 2024. Aluminum foil and specialty alloy production also rose by 32% and 7%, respectively.
• EUROFER has proposed stricter EU steel import safeguards, including reduced tariff quotas, increased duties, and country-specific limits. These measures aim to address declining demand while adhering to EU and WTO rules.
• Indonesia extended anti-dumping duties on flat-rolled steel imports from countries including China, India, and Russia, effective January 15, 2025, for five years. Duties range from 0%-20% based on origin and HS code classifications.

Expert Opinion:

• 300 series prices are expected to rise in the current scenario, since USD is high.
• 400 series prices are also expected to remain on the steeper side, because of the BIS issue.
• 200 series is also expected to perform very well domestically, as imports are choked.