Nickel Prices Fall; Stainless Steel Market Maintains

Price

• LME's nickel opened today down by 0.39% at $16,790/ton, while copper opened down by 0.19% at $9,243/ton.
• The INR opened today against the USD at 83.92/-.
• The current retail price for 304 CR wider 2B is approximately Rs.198-201/kg basic price range, ex-Delhi. The price for narrow 304 CR is approximately Rs.3-5/kg cheaper, plus GST.
• SS 316L imported material is now retailing in the range of Rs.317-321/kg for HR wider. Indian material is priced higher by Rs.5-10/kg. For CR wider, the rates are Rs.10/kg higher than HR. SS 201 imported CR 2B (extra low thicknesses like 0.26mm) is being retailed at Rs.143-148/kg, ex-Delhi, plus GST. Domestic 201 (cheapest grade) is now being retailed in the range of Rs.140-143/- base price (plus thickness difference extra), plus GST.

Demand and Supply

• Demand is nearly equivalent to supply in 304 & 316L (both CR & HR) for generic sizes.
• There is little demand in ferritic grades, whether it is 430 for cutlery/utensils, 409M for railway grades, or 409L for automotive segment grades. Good demand is being observed in 201 grades, whether for hollowware, pipes & tubes, or general fabrication.
• Decent demand is also being seen in 304 narrow sizes, particularly for applications like pipes, tubes, or rerolling usages.

News

• AM/NS India anticipates an 8-10% annual growth in color-coated steel demand, driven by the construction and appliance sectors. Currently, with a consumption of 3.2 million tons per year, this segment is outpacing base-grade steel. AM/NS India, a joint venture of ArcelorMittal and Nippon Steel, has launched 'Optigal' and plans to increase production from 700,000 to 1 million tons, starting in Pune and expanding to other facilities later.
• On August 20, the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw nickel futures surge by US$369/ton, closing at US$17,035/ton. This marks a monthly rise of US$431/ton or 2.6%. Expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and China's optimistic economic policies, including increased subsidies for new energy vehicles under a revised car trade-in policy, contributed to the price increase. Nickel prices are now at their highest since July 11, 2023.
• South East Asian stainless steel hot rolled coil (HRC) prices continued to rise last week, marking a five-month trend. Taiwanese manufacturers also reported peak import and export prices since December 2023 and November 2023, respectively. The primary cause is the scarcity of nickel ore and nickel pig iron (NPI) in Asia. Since December 2023, nickel pig iron prices have surged in China and Indonesia, with Chinese NPI up nearly 13% and Indonesian NPI by around 11.5%.
• Despite a decline in alloy surcharges from August 2024, the average nickel price on the LME in August is still about 1.7% higher than in July. This increase persists despite market distortions caused by sanctioned Russian nickel, which represents about 23.5% of LME's origin stock as of July 31, 2024. Russian nickel, almost unsellable due to sanctions, continues to impact the market.
• The US Department of Commerce (USDOC) found that Taiwan’s stainless steel sheet and strip in coils were sold below normal value from July 2022 to June 2023. The USDOC rescinded the review for 52 companies with no suspended entries. Yieh Trading Corporation faces a 21.10% dumping margin, while Chia Far Industrial Factory Co., Ta Chen Stainless Pipe, Tang Eng Iron Works, and Yu-Ting Industries have the same margin. Final results will be issued within 120 days.

Expert's Opinion

• Both 304 & 316L are expected to have a moderate performance this week due to the decrease in raw material prices.
• The 200 series is still performing strongly, owing to the lack of imported products in the market.
• The 400 series continues its dull run due to low demand in ferritic grades.