Nickel Prices Rise; Stainless Steel Market Sees Supply Constraints and Global Trade Tensions

Key Takeaways

• Nickel and Base Metals: Nickel prices increased 0.24% last day and 5.6% this month, with LME nickel hitting a four-month high.
• Stainless Steel Prices: 304 CR wider 2B trades at Rs 197-199/kg, while 316L HR imported material is Rs 318-322/kg. Prices expected to remain firm.
• Demand Trends: 200 series demand surges due to low imports, 400 series remains strong, and 300 series sees slow but steady growth.
• Trade Tensions: US tariffs on Canadian and Brazilian steel may disrupt global supply chains, potentially lowering prices in certain markets.
• Market Outlook: Experts expect stainless steel prices to hold firm, with 200 and 400 series performing well. Import limitations may drive further price strength.

Stainless Steel Price:

• Nickel opened today up by 0.24% at $16,445/mt, while Copper opened today down by 0.47% at $9,568/mt.
• INR opened today against USD at 87.27/-.
• Current retail price for 304 CR wider 2B is now running approximately at Rs.197-199/kg basic price range, ex-Delhi, while for narrow, it is approximately Rs.3-5/kg cheaper, plus GST.
• SS 316L HR imported material is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.318-322/kg for HR wider. Indian material is expensive by Rs.5-10/kg. For CR wider, the rates are Rs.10/kg higher than HR.
• SS 201 imported CR 2B (extra low thicknesses like 0.26mm) is being retailed at Rs. 165-167/kg, ex-Delhi, plus GST.
• Domestic 201 (cheapest grade) is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.143-145/- base price (plus thickness difference extra), plus GST.

Stainless Steel Demand and Supply:

• The cash constraint is causing demand in the 300 series to marginally improve, but not significantly.
• Demand in the 400 series is also seen to be rising.
• Due to the lack of imported material, demand in the 200 series has climbed even more and is optimistic.
• As anticipated, No. 4 PVC material demand has continued to increase in recent months for both the 200 and 300 series.

Stainless Steel News:

• Asian nickel prices increased Friday, with SHFE up 1.3% and LME above USD 16,300/mt. Indonesian nickel ore increased up to 1.9%, nickel pig iron by 0.31–0.85%, and stainless steel scrap by 1.4%.
• LME nickel futures jumped US$397 to US$16,298/mt on March 6, with spot prices up US$402 to US$16,085/ton. Nickel has gained 5.6% this month and 6.3% this year. LME inventories rose 2.28% in March. A weaker US dollar, delayed US auto tariffs, and a stainless steel rebound pushed prices up, though rising inventories may cause volatility.
• US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports (effective April 2) threaten trade. Canada considers 25% tariffs on US$30 billion in US goods and restricting metal exports. The US relies on Canadian minerals, and tariffs may disrupt industries or shift sourcing to Russia.
• A 25% steel tariff also affects Brazil, the second-largest US supplier. Brazil may turn to Europe and China, potentially lowering local prices. Vice President Alckmin will meet US officials to stress trade ties. Brazil mainly exports slabs, crucial for US mills.
• LME base metals increased on March 7. Tin futures jumped 3.01%, nickel 2.7% (hitting a four-month high), and zinc, copper, and aluminium gained over 1%. Experts say a 25% US copper tariff could reduce imports and stabilize supply.

Expert Opinion:

• 300 series prices are expected to rise in the current scenario, since USD is high.
• 400 series prices are also expected to remain on the steeper side, because of the BIS issue.
• 200 series is also expected to perform very well domestically, as imports are choked.