Nickel Slips, Copper Climbs as Stainless Steel Prices Hold Steady

Key Insights

• Nickel Prices Down, Copper Up: Nickel dropped 0.38% to $15,815/mt, while copper increased 1.23% to $9,391/mt.
• Stainless Steel Prices Stable: Prices for 304 CR wider 2B are steady at Rs.197-199/kg, while SS 316L HR is priced between Rs.318-322/kg ex-Delhi.
• Demand Trends: 300 series demand stable, 400 series rising, and 200 series strong due to import shortages.
• Global Production Growth: Global stainless steel production grew by 5.4% YoY, with China leading at 28.6M mt, followed by strong gains in Europe and the U.S.
• Price Hikes Expected: 300 series prices are expected to rise due to a strong USD, with the 400 series remaining high, and robust domestic performance for the 200 series.

Stainless Steel Price:

• Nickel opened today down by 0.38% at $15,815/mt, while Copper opened today up by 1.23% at $9,391/mt.
• INR opened today against USD at 87.44/-.
• Current retail price for 304 CR wider 2B is now running approximately at Rs.197-199/kg basic price range, ex-Delhi, while for narrow, it is approximately Rs.3-5/kg cheaper, plus GST.
• SS 316L HR imported material is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.318-322/kg for HR wider. Indian material is expensive by Rs.5-10/kg. For CR wider, the rates are Rs.10/kg higher than HR.
• SS 201 imported CR 2B (extra low thicknesses like 0.26mm) is being retailed at Rs. 165-167/kg, ex-Delhi, plus GST.
• Domestic 201 (cheapest grade) is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.143-145/- base price (plus thickness difference extra), plus GST.

Stainless Steel Demand and Supply:

• The cash constraint is causing demand in the 300 series to marginally improve, but not significantly.
• Demand in the 400 series is also seen to be rising.
• The 200 series remains strong, driven by a shortage of imported material.
• No.4 PVC material demand continues to rise across both the 200 and 300 series, a trend that has been consistently observed over the past few months.

Stainless Steel News:

• According to the World Stainless Association (Worldstainless), global stainless steel production increased 5.4% YoY to 46.1M mt (Jan–Sep 2024). China’s output increased by 3.4% to 28.6M mt, while Europe, the U.S., and other regions saw growth of 4.9%, 9.1%, and 11.2%, respectively.
• LME nickel futures went up by $265/mt to $15,535/mt on Feb 5, driven by a weak U.S. dollar and delayed tariffs on Canada & Mexico. SHFE nickel surged 3.4% due to Indonesia’s mining quota cuts and possible export restrictions.
• Taiwanese, Chinese, and European stainless steel producers raised prices for February, mainly for the 300 series, following rising nickel costs.

Expert Opinion:

• 300 series prices are likely to see an upward trend due to the high USD exchange rate.
• Prices for the 400 series are also expected to stay elevated, influenced by the BIS issue.
• 200 series is also expected to do very well domestically due to limited imports.