Nickel Up, Copper Down; Rising Demand and Limited Supply Impacting Stainless Steel Prices

Key Takeaways

• Nickel Prices Up, INR Strengthens: LME Nickel opened 0.71% higher at $16,350/mt, while the INR improved to 85.67/USD.
• Steel Price Trends: 304 CR wider 2B is priced at Rs.197-199/kg, while 316L HR imported material is Rs.318-322/kg.
• Rising Demand Across Series: 300-series sees slight improvement, 400-series demand is increasing, and 200-series demand remains strong due to limited imports.
• Global Developments: Harita Nickel’s refinery expansion, Hyundai Steel’s $5.8B EAF project, and rising copper prices are impacting the market. 
• Expert Outlook: Prices in the 300 and 400 series are expected to rise, while the 200 series remains strong due to limited imports.

Stainless Steel Price:

• Nickel opened today up by 0.71% at $16,350/mt, while Copper opened down by 0.04% at $9,843/mt.
• INR opened today against USD at 85.67/-.
• Current retail price for 304 CR wider 2B is now running approximately at Rs.197-199/kg basic price range, ex-Delhi, while for narrow, it is approximately Rs.3-5/kg cheaper. Plus GST.
• SS 316L HR imported material is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.318-322/kg for HR wider. Indian material is expensive by Rs.5-10/kg. For CR wider, the rates are Rs.10/kg higher than HR.
• SS 201 imported CR 2B (extra low thicknesses like 0.26mm) is being retailed at Rs. 165-167/kg, ex-Delhi, plus GST. Domestic 201 (cheapest grade) is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.143-145/- base price (plus thickness difference extra), plus GST.

Stainless Steel Demand and Supply:

• The cash constraint is causing demand in the 300 series to marginally improve, but not significantly.
• Demand in the 400 series is also seen to be rising. 
• Due to the lack of imported material, demand in the 200 series has climbed even more and is optimistic.
• As anticipated, No. 4 PVC material demand has continued to increase in recent months for both the 200 and 300 series.

Stainless Steel News:

• Harita Nickel’s second refinery is now fully operational, increasing its MHP refining capacity to 120,000 mt per year. The company is improving efficiency to counter industry challenges.
• The global chromium market, valued at $15.7B in 2022, is projected to reach $21.3B by 2031, driven by stainless steel demand.
• Appian Capital restructures in Brazil, planning a $600M investment in Santa Rita’s transition to underground mining.
• Copper futures hit a record $5.21/lb due to tariff concerns and supply disruptions from Glencore’s halted Chilean shipments.
• Hyundai Steel will build a $5.8B EAF steel mill in Louisiana, producing 2.7M metric tons annually by 2029.
• EAF mills are shifting to semi-finished imports from Asia as scrap prices rise by $30/mt, increasing competition in the market.

Expert Opinion:

• In the current situation, 300 series prices are anticipated to increase due to the high USD.
• 400 series prices are expected to stay high due to the BIS issue.
• 200 series is also anticipated to do very well domestically due to limited imports.