Nickel Up, Copper Down: Stainless Steel Market Holds Ground

Key Takeaways

• Nickel Prices Climb, Copper Down: Nickel opened 1.48% higher at $14,360/MT, adding upward pressure on stainless steel production costs. Copper went down by 1.07%.
• 200 Series Sees Strong Demand: Limited imports are driving solid demand for the 200 series, especially in thinner CR segments.
• 304 and 316L Rates Steady: Retail prices for key 300 series grades remain firm, supported by input costs and steady consumption.
• Scrap Prices Remain Elevated: High scrap rates for 304 and 316L are sustaining current price levels across domestic producers.
• US Tariff Talks: Over 50 countries urge US to ease tariffs; India, Taiwan offer 0% US import duty.

Stainless Steel Price:

• Nickel opened today up by 1.48% at $14,360/MT, while Copper opened today down by 1.07% at $8,563/MT.
• INR opened today against USD at 86.38/-.
• Current retail price for 304 CR wider 2B is now running approximately at Rs.199-200/kg basic price range, ex-Delhi, while for narrow, it is approximately Rs.3-5/kg cheaper, plus GST.
• SS 316L HR imported material is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.320-323/kg for HR wider. Indian material is expensive by Rs.5-10/kg. For CR wider, the rates are Rs.10/kg higher than HR.
• SS 201 imported CR 2B (extra low thicknesses like 0.26mm) is being retailed at Rs. 165-167/kg, ex-Delhi, plus GST. Domestic 201 (cheapest grade) is now being retailed in the price range of Rs.143-145/- base price (plus thickness difference extra), plus GST.
• Indian flat stainless steel producers are buying scrap after the service of the finished-goods at the following latest prices (plus GST):-
• 304: Rs.1,27,886/MT
• 316L: Rs.2,25,065/MT
• J5 Patta: Rs.72,000/MT
• J8 Patta: Rs.70,000/MT
• 430: Rs.56,317/MT

Stainless Steel Demand and Supply:

• Demand for the 300 series is showing slight improvement, though not significantly, due to ongoing cash flow challenges.
• The 400 series is also witnessing a gradual rise in demand.
• The 200 series remains strong, driven by a shortage of imported material.
• No.4 PVC material demand continues to rise across both the 200 and 300 series, a trend that has been consistently observed over the past few months.

Stainless Steel News:

• The global stainless steel market in 2025 faces pressure from volatile raw material prices, US tariffs, and ongoing supply chain issues. Nickel, a key input, is expected to stay between $15,000–$20,000/MT, supported by Indonesian mining limits and EV demand. Chromium prices have stabilized, though supply risks in South Africa continue. Regional dynamics will be key for businesses managing inventory and manufacturing costs.
• Despite the recent US reciprocal tariffs affecting nickel futures, spot prices for Asian nickel ore (-1.3%), NPI (-1.0%), and stainless steel (-0.23%) have remained relatively stable. After a holiday pause, SHFE nickel futures rebounded nearly 3%, mirroring gains on the LME.
• Over 50 countries, including the UK, India, Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia, have reached out to the US to ease trade tariffs. Taiwan and India have already offered 0% tariffs on US imports.
• BHP Group dropped plans to spin off its iron ore and coal units, now focusing on growth via potash and copper. Its 2023 bid for Anglo American aimed to boost its copper assets and green steel goals, but the deal’s failure led to a strategic shift, though long-term green ambitions remain.
• Chile’s Codelco increased copper output in Q1 2025 and remains optimistic about long-term demand despite US-China trade tensions. Output was slightly up YoY, and full-year guidance remains at 1.37–1.4 mt, driven by energy transition needs.
• The global recycled metal market hit $2.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $4.7 billion by 2031, growing at 8.1% CAGR. DataM Intelligence reports point to rising opportunities and strategic growth in this space.

Expert Opinion:

• In terms of pricing, the 300 series is likely to see an upward trend due to the high USD exchange rate.
• Prices for the 400 series are also expected to stay elevated, influenced by the BIS issue.
• The 200 series is performing well in the domestic market as limited imports continue to support strong demand.