OPEC+ Supply Uncertainty and Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Oil Prices

Key Market Insights

• Price Surge: Brent Crude is trading at $74.25 per barrel, with WTI at $70.74 per barrel, driven by geopolitical developments.
• Demand Concerns: Economic uncertainties continue to hold demand back, with the market cautious on future oil requirements.
• OPEC+ Supply Strategy: OPEC+ may delay adding 200,000 bpd back into the market, with a scheduled rollback of 180,000 bpd in December also under review.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Rising prices were partly due to concerns over Iran’s potential actions in the Middle East conflict.

Petroleum Prices Today

• Global oil markets are witnessing a sustained increase in prices.
• Brent Crude oil on the London ICE (InterContinental Exchange Futures) increased by $1.44, reaching $74.25 per barrel.
• Meanwhile, light crude oil on the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) increased by $1.48, standing at $70.74 per barrel.

Petroleum Demand and Supply Trends

• Oil prices are facing weekly losses as concerns over demand and potential increases in supply weigh on the market.
• Demand remains fragile due to economic uncertainties, while a possible addition of 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in supply from OPEC+ could further soften prices.
• OPEC+ currently withholds approximately 5.86 million bpd from the market, and a rollback of 180,000 bpd was scheduled for December.
• Market conditions may prompt OPEC+ to delay this increase by at least a month or more if price vulnerabilities persist.

Petroleum Global News

• Prices saw a brief uptick on reports that Iran could retaliate against Israel over recent conflicts, potentially through an attack involving drones and missiles launched from Iraq.
• This development spiked Brent Crude to $74.16 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $70.63 per barrel.
• Still, overall price movements remained suppressed. Earlier reports indicated that OPEC+ might consider postponing the planned easing of production cuts, citing market instability.
• Unnamed sources suggested that the December rollback could be postponed due to an unfavourable price environment.

Expert Opinion

Oil prices are expected to remain volatile, with near-term factors like the U.S. presidential election and China’s new economic stimulus package anticipated to significantly influence the market. While traders remain cautious, OPEC+ is unlikely to return withheld supply unless prices stabilize, ensuring that any supply increase aligns with market health.