PET Bottle Chip Prices Witness Volatile Trend Amid Mixed Market Drivers – May 2025

Key Highlights

1. PET price rose from ¥5,700 to ¥6,185/ton, then fell to ¥6,077/ton by May 29.
2. Operating rate remains high at 87.93%, with weekly output of 365,000 tons.
3. Soft drink sector improving, but high inventory restricts buying.
4. Exports up 27.3% YoY, yet facing anti-dumping and global demand concerns.
5. Cost pressure from PX plant issues and futures margin hike impacted sentiment.

PET Prices Rise Mid-May, Then Correct

• As per the sunsirs.com, in May 2025, the price of PET (polyester bottle chips) experienced notable fluctuations. The month began with average prices hovering around 5,700 RMB/ton in East China, with muted downstream buying interest. 
• Following the Labor Day holidays, a rebound in crude oil and strengthening of key feedstocks (PTA and ethylene glycol) pushed prices up, peaking at 6,185 RMB/ton on May 14. 
• However, the second half of the month saw a decline in crude oil prices and weakening of raw materials, pulling prices back to the 6,000 RMB/ton mark. As of May 29, the average PET price stood at 6,077 RMB/ton.

Oversupply and High Inventory Limit Upside

• Supply Side: The PET industry continues to operate at a high rate of 87.93%, producing around 365,000 tons weekly.
• A planned capacity addition of 2.15 million tons in 2025 signals a sustained oversupply outlook.
• Despite temporary tightness in certain regional spot markets, inventory remains elevated at 16–18 days, restricting significant price recoveries.
• Demand Side: The soft drink sector’s operational rate improved to 80–90%, but high finished goods inventory (23.64 days for weaving enterprises) kept buying conservative.
• Export volumes, while showing a 27.3% YoY growth in April (reaching 580,800 tons), may see slower momentum due to anti-dumping probes and global economic concerns, limiting their ability to ease domestic supply pressure.

News and Policy Highlights: Policy, Margin Rules Add to Market Volatility

• Crude Oil: Prices remained volatile, influenced by OPEC+ production strategies and Middle East tensions, fluctuating around $70/barrel.
• PTA processing margins showed short-lived improvement (325 RMB/ton) but face pressure from new capacities (4.5 million tons).
• Ethylene glycol inventory remains high at 584,400 tons, reflecting continued oversupply.
• PX Plant Downtime: An unplanned reduction in PX plant load increased PET production costs by 509 RMB/ton, with the industry facing losses of -317 RMB/ton.
• Futures Margin Adjustment: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased PET futures margin to 9% to curb speculative activity.
• Policy Uncertainty: Push towards biodegradable alternatives and concerns over US Fed rate cuts weighed on market confidence.

Expert Opinion: Seasonal Demand Holds Key to Price Direction

• The PET bottle chip market in May remained volatile, influenced by cost fluctuations, high inventories, and seasonal demand shifts. While a brief mid-month rally was supported by rising feedstock prices and PX supply disruptions, weak demand recovery and oversupply concerns dragged prices back down. 
• Short-term fluctuations are expected to persist, with a potential uptick hinging on stronger-than-expected seasonal demand from beverage industries. However, market participants remain cautious due to policy headwinds and external economic uncertainty.