Polyethylene Market Trends: Supply Pressure, Weak Demand & Volatile Outlook

Key Highlights:

1. HDPE Price Trends: Prices remain stable across key markets, with minor adjustments due to supply-demand shifts.
2. Supply Pressure: Increased availability and temporary production shutdowns are affecting market dynamics.
3. Crude Oil Impact: Rising U.S. crude inventories are weakening feedstock support for PE pricing.
4. Market Outlook: Weak demand persists, but an expected rise in operating rates could support gradual recovery.

Polymer Price: HDPE Price Trends Across Key Markets

• In Ahmedabad, HMEL HDPE BM is priced at ₹83,050 per metric ton. Meanwhile, HDPE HM Films (Prime) is available in Mundra at ₹90,000 per metric ton. 
• In Mumbai, HDPE PE100 Black (Prime) is being traded at ₹92,000 per metric ton, while in Chennai, HDPE PE100 Natural (Prime) is also priced at ₹92,000 per metric ton.

Demand and Supply: Demand Recovery Remains Sluggish Post-Holiday

• The polyethylene (PE) market has experienced fluctuations in early 2025, with varying trends across different product categories. Linear products continue to face weak momentum, while high-pressure polyethylene (LDPE) has seen some price support due to supply constraints. Low-pressure polyethylene (HDPE) remains relatively stable with minor adjustments.
• On the supply side, market pressure remains high as spot availability increases, prompting manufacturers and traders to lower prices to clear inventories. Some production units have undergone temporary shutdowns or switched to alternate production, influencing supply dynamics. 
• On the demand side, downstream consumption has been slow to recover post-holiday, with limited order follow-ups restricting price support. Furthermore, weaker international crude oil prices—driven by rising U.S. commercial crude inventories—have softened cost support for PE. However, mid-to-late February is expected to see improved factory operating rates, gradually releasing demand.
• With planned new plant commissions and expected production expansions, the overall supply is projected to remain ample. However, in the short term, PE prices are expected to face weak movement with intermittent fluctuations, influenced by crude oil trends and market sentiment.

Polymers News: Global Crude Oil Trends & Their Market Impact

• Baofeng, Ningxia Shuts Down LDPE/EVA Unit: The facility ceased operations on February 10 for maintenance and will transition to EVA production post-restart.
• Wanhua Chemical High-Pressure Unit Shutdown: Expected maintenance in mid-February could influence LDPE supply.
• Rising Crude Inventories Weigh on PE Market: U.S. crude stockpiles increased, weakening feedstock support and impacting PE pricing.
• Lotte Chemical has announced that its Ethylene Vinyl Acetate (EVA) Plant in Daesan, South Korea, is operating at reduced production rates. 
• The plant, which has an annual production capacity of 110,000 tons, will continue operating at these lowered rates until early March 2025.

Expert Opinion: Industry Insights & Future Market Outlook

• In the short term, the PE market is expected to remain weak and volatile, with ample supply and subdued demand. As February progresses, downstream operating rates are likely to improve, gradually supporting demand. However, supply growth may outpace demand recovery, keeping price fluctuations in check.
• Crude oil price movements and macroeconomic factors will play a crucial role in shaping sentiment. Moving into March and beyond, improved demand from packaging, construction, and industrial applications may provide some stability, but overall, the PE market is expected to operate within a cautious and supply-driven environment.