Polyethylene Prices Firm Amid Cost Push and Tight Supply, Demand Remains Subdued

Key Highlights:

• LDPE Leads Price Gains: Prices rose 4.38% week-on-week, driven by supply constraints and plant shutdowns.
• Maintenance-Driven Tightness: Global outages across LDPE and LLDPE units in China, Israel, Egypt, and Slovakia are limiting regional availability.
• Weak End-Use Demand: Off-season slowdown in agriculture films and pipes is weighing on overall offtake.
• Crude Cost Pressure: Firm crude oil prices are lending cost-side support, particularly in the absence of fresh downstream demand triggers.

Polyethylene (PE) Asian Market Price

INDIA: 

• HDPE Blow Moulding is priced at ₹89,750/ton in Delhi. HDPE Raffia is available at ₹90,000/ton in Mundra. 
• LLDPE 1 MFI Slip is trading at ₹92,500/ton in Rajkot. HMEL's LLDPE Roto Moulding grade R0536L is priced at ₹96,870/ton in Ahmedabad. 
• LDPE 4 MFI Slip GP is being sold at ₹1,19,750/ton in Delhi, while DPE Lamination is quoted at ₹1,23,750/ton in Mundra. 
• Lastly, HMEL's MDPE Blow Moulding grade B0148D is priced at ₹90,550/ton in Ahmedabad.

CHINA:

• Polyethylene prices witnessed a moderate to strong upward trend between June 16th and June 20th. 
• LLDPE average price ranged between $1120/ton to $1131/ton, marking a 1.00% rise, LDPE ranged between $1327/ton to $1385/ton, recording a 4.38% increase. While HDPE between $1037/ton to $1056/ton, reflecting a 1.59% gain. 
• LDPE led the gains in the polyethylene segment, largely driven by supply-side constraints and stronger crude oil support.

China Market Demand and Supply Dynamics: Supply Constraints vs. Weak Demand

• The polyethylene market is currently experiencing tight supply, particularly in the LDPE (high-pressure) segment, where a number of production facilities are under maintenance.
• This concentrated downtime has tightened the availability of high-voltage grade material, prompting producers and traders to raise quotations.
• On the demand side, however, overall market sentiment remains sluggish. The agricultural film sector is in the off-season, resulting in lower enterprise order volumes. Additionally, the downstream pipe manufacturing sector has scaled back operations, contributing to weak demand across the board. This imbalance between tight supply and soft demand has somewhat limited the pace and scale of price increases.
• The key external factor influencing the polyethylene market is the rising cost pressure from crude oil, amid escalating geopolitical tensions on the international stage. Crude oil price strength has fed into the petrochemical value chain, lending cost-side support to PE pricing.
• Additionally, the ongoing maintenance of high-voltage product lines continues to affect domestic production. Traders and manufacturers are adjusting their offer levels in anticipation of continued supply tightness, especially in LDPE.

Polyethylene (PE) Market News: Geopolitical Risk and Crude Oil Influence

• Slovnaft Bratislava plans to shut its Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE) unit for maintenance in the second half of June 2025. The facility, located in Bratislava, Slovakia, has an annual production capacity of 220,000 tons.
• Lotte Titan Nusantara is preparing to restart its Linear Low Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) plant after scheduled maintenance. The plant is located in Indonesia and has a production capacity of 200,000 tons per year.
• Carmel Olefins has shut down its LDPE and Polypropylene (PP) plants in Haifa, Israel, due to a power failure resulting from regional geopolitical tensions. The LDPE plant has a production capacity of 175,000 metric tons per year, while the PP plant can produce up to 450,000 metric tons annually.
• Shanghai SECCO Petrochemical has taken its No.1 LLDPE production line offline for maintenance. The line, located in Shanghai, China, has a production capacity of 400,000 tons per year.
• Egyptian Ethylene and Derivatives Co (ETHYDCO) has halted operations at its HDPE and LLDPE lines due to a disruption in gas supply caused by the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict. These lines, situated in Amreya, Alexandria, Egypt, have a combined production capacity of 400,000 tons per year.

Expert Opinion

While cost support from crude oil remains firm, the seasonally low demand and weak downstream activity are expected to limit further upward momentum in polyethylene prices. The market may stay rangebound with only moderate fluctuations unless a substantial change in demand or crude prices occurs.