Polyolefin Price Outlook for 2025: Volatility and Potential Increases

Key Highlights:

• Stable Prices: Most polymer grades show stable pricing with minimal changes, though HDPE Natural saw a 13% surge.
• Supply Adjustments: Seasonal converter shutdowns in December may prompt price hikes in early 2025 as suppliers aim to recover margins.
• Global Updates: Saudi Arabia enforces anti-dumping measures on PVC imports, while key plants in China adjust run rates or restart operations.
• Volatile Outlook: 2025 is projected to be volatile, with potential plant closures and rationalization shaping price trends.

Polymer Price Movements: Stability Amid Minor Adjustments

• PP Raffia (±0) Rs 87/kg levels Ex Godown
• PP Film (±0) Rs 95/kg levels Ex Godown
• PPCP Impact (±0) Rs 96/kg levels Ex Godown
• LLDPE 2 MFI Slip (+0.5) Rs.87/kg Ex Mundra/Bhiwandi
• LDPE 4 MFI Slip prices are around (±0) Rs.105/kg Ex Mundra/Bhiwandi
• HDPE PE100 natural (-2) Rs.82.5/kg Ex Ahmedabad
• HDPE PE100 black (±0) Rs.88/kg Ex Mundra/Bhiwandi
• HDPE HM (±0) Rs.89/kg Ex Mundra/Bhiwandi
• HD Blow Molding (±0) Rs.89/kg Ex Mundra/Bhiwandi

Polymer Supply and Demand Preparing for 2025 Volatility

• Polyolefin prices were largely stable in December, though some grades experienced slight downward pressure. 
• The outlook for early 2025 suggests a rollover in prices initially, followed by a potential strengthening around February. 
• Producers, unable to sustain losses for much longer, are likely to adjust their strategies, signaling possible changes in the market.
• 2025 is anticipated to be a volatile year, with potential plant closures and continued rationalization in the polymer industry. 
• As demand returns to normal after the seasonal converter shutdowns in December, polymer suppliers are expected to contemplate price hikes to recover margins.

Polymer News: Anti-Dumping and Production Adjustments

• Inner Mongolia Junzheng lowers run rates at BDO unit.
• Sinopec Guangzhou eyes turnaround at cracker.
• DGTR says special PVC suspension resin grades do not warrant exclusion from the scope of product under consideration.
• Jiangsu Ruiheng brings PDH plant on stream.
• Ethylene prices dropped in Northeast Asia, while remaining stable in Southeast Asia.
• Natural HDPE jumps 13%, fiber continues to taper off.
• Saudi Arabia imposes anti-dumping measures on PVC-coated textile imports from China and South Korea

Expert Opinion: Price Rollovers Expected for Specialist Grades

The extent of price movements is expected to be polymer-specific, with most prices continuing to trend lower throughout December. However, some tighter and more specialist grades may experience rollovers.