Primary TMT: Price Cuts Ahead as Steel Imports Continue to Impact Supply

Key Takeaways

• Primary TMT Prices: Prices remain steady, ranging from Rs. 51,500 to Rs. 52,500/mt across various regions in India.
• Market Conditions: Despite expectations for a price rise in December, the market is static, with declining inquiries and a lack of encouraging trends.
• Imports Impact: Rising steel imports, especially from China, have caused inventory levels to rise and may continue to affect domestic prices.
• Government Response: India’s Ministry of Steel has proposed a safeguard duty to combat rising imports, but this may not fully address challenges from countries with free trade agreements.
• Market Outlook: Steel prices are expected to decrease in the coming weeks, with market demand and supply dynamics playing a key role in shaping the direction.

Primary TMT Prices

• Prices are as follows (size 12 to 32mm): Ex-Mumbai: Rs. 52,000-52,500/mt Ex-Delhi NCR: Rs.52,000-52,500/mt Ex-Vizag: Rs. 51,500 - 52,000/mt
• Note - Distributors across North, West and South have decreased prices. Above pricing is based on the same.

Primary TMT Demand & Supply

• There were expectations that the market would rise in December, but the situation appears to be the same, and the market appears to be static. According to market trends, there will likely be additional price reductions in the days ahead. The flow of inquiries has decreased, and the market is not exhibiting encouraging patterns.

Primary TMT News

• Surging steel imports are impacting India's domestic industry, which is crucial for the government’s $1.4 trillion infrastructure plans. With steel prices falling, inventory levels have risen from 15-16 days to 30 days with the majority of steel mills.
• India, now a net importer of finished steel, is seeking protection from rising imports, particularly from China. The Ministry of Steel has proposed a 25% safeguard duty for two years. However, this may not address imports from countries like Japan and South Korea, with whom India has free trade agreements. The safeguard process is slow and could raise steel prices, affecting industries that rely on steel for production.

Expert Opinion

• According to market talks and conversations with distributors, steel prices may decline significantly over the next few weeks. It might become clear in the upcoming weeks whether market prices will continue to fall or rise in response to demand patterns.