Primary TMT Prices Up; Distributors Predict Further Hikes

Primary TMT Prices

• Ex-Mumbai: Rs. 51,000-51,500/ton
• Ex-Delhi NCR: Rs. 51,000-51,500/ton
• Ex-Vizag: Rs. 49,500 -50,000/ton
• Distributors across the North, West, and South have increased prices.

Primary TMT Demand and Supply

According to market speculations, the dividend will rise in September. The distributors predict that prices will rise even higher. Prices per mt have increased by the primary mills by 500–1000 per mt. Since all of the mills are running, there is a surplus of material available to the distributors. The volume of inquiries will determine the future direction of prices.

Primary TMT News

• Iron ore prices to hold up even as China’s steel sector struggles. Prices for the commodity will likely remain robust despite the downturn in China.

• Despite all the bleak warnings about catastrophic conditions in the Chinese steel market, iron ore is holding up rather well. At roughly $100 a ton, it’s still nearly three times as high as during the depths reached in the last major steel crisis in 2015 and 2016. Still, a miserable start to August likely made some people nervous at the world’s major producers.

• The bulk commodity dropped toward $90 a ton in recent weeks, tumbling to the lowest since 2022, before a recovery saw prices end the month marginally higher. That rebound triggered a familiar complaint from China — the “irrational” iron ore market is crushing the country’s long-suffering steel mills.

• Any marginal improvement in China’s economic outlook will likely fuel quick gains in the commodity’s cost. That will limit the ability of the nation’s bloated steel industry to boost margins meaningfully. But it’s the iron ore supply that’s most critical to keeping prices from a sustained decline.

• China’s steel slump has left high-cost mines aware of the threats posed by sub-$100 futures. If they start to close, supply will tighten. BHP Group Ltd., one of the world’s biggest producers, estimates around 170 million tons of global output sit in the cost band between $80 and $100 a ton, much of it in China or India.

• Given that Citigroup Inc. sees “soft support” for prices at $90 and “hard support” at $80, any drop lower is unlikely to hold for too long. What that means is that iron ore prices are relatively protected on the downside. That’s a boon for companies such as BHP, which is trying to transition its sprawling business to growth areas like copper.

• China may have passed peak steel, and $200 iron ore is in the past. But futures fluctuating between $80 and $120 a ton is a good thing for low-cost mining giants as they adjust to a new kind of economy.

Expert Opinion

The primary mills have raised primary TMT prices by 500–1000 per metric ton. Since the distributors have a large amount of merchandise on hand, there is no issue with supply or demand. The demand pattern will be cleared in two to three days, at which point the price trend will stabilize.