PVC and Calcium Carbide Prices Decline Amid Weak Market Fundamentals

Key Highlights

1. Price Trends: Polymer prices remain steady, with slight declines in HDPE and PVC due to weak fundamental support and high supply.
2. Supply Surplus: Over half of manufacturers operate at full capacity, leading to elevated inventory levels and bearish downstream demand.
3. Upstream Developments: Low crude oil and calcium carbide prices contribute to weak market performance, keeping cost-side support average.
4. Industry Outlook: PVC market confidence remains low, with expectations of continued weak and volatile conditions in the short term.

Polymer Prices: Stable with Minor Fluctuations

• PP Raffia remains stable at Rs.88/kg levels Ex Godown
• PP Film is priced steady at Rs.98.50/kg levels Ex Godown
• PPCP is holding at Rs.95.75/kg levels Ex Godown
• PP Lamination prices stay at Rs.95/kg levels Ex Godown
• PVC Low K (DG700) is at Rs.79/kg Ex Nhava Sheva/Mundra
• PVC Low K (B57) stands at Rs.82.75/kg Ex Nhava Sheva/Mundra
• PVC LG LS100H is priced at Rs.76.75/kg Ex Mundra/Bhiwandi
• LLDPE increases slightly to Rs.86.5/kg Ex Mundra/Bhiwandi
• LDPE prices remain around Rs.116/kg Ex Mundra/Bhiwandi
• HDPE PE100 natural drops by Rs.2 to Rs.84/kg Ex Mundra/Bhiwandi
• HDPE PE100 black stays steady at Rs.88/kg Ex Mundra/Bhiwandi
• HDPE HM holds at Rs.88/kg Ex Mundra/Bhiwandi
• HD Blow Molding remains unchanged at Rs.91/kg Ex Mundra/Bhiwandi.

Weak Downstream Demand Drive Surplus Supply

• Since December, PVC prices have continued to decline due to weak fundamental support. 
• Upstream crude oil prices have remained low, leading to weak ethylene performance. 
• The poor performance of the futures market has further pressured the spot market.
• Manufacturers' operating rates have generally increased, with over half operating at full capacity, resulting in a surplus supply. 
• Dealer offers have steadily declined as downstream procurement remains focused on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiries and a sluggish market atmosphere.
• The quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is currently around 4,850-5,080 RMB/ton.  
• In the upstream calcium carbide market, prices have also declined since December, falling by 0.58% last week. 
• Limited support and the downturn in the PVC market have contributed to fluctuations in calcium carbide prices.  

Latest Polymer Industry News 

• RASCO/NOC has declared a Force Majeure (FM) on the supplies of Propylene and Ethylene from its Cracker located in Ras Lanuf, Libya. 
• The Cracker has a Propylene production capacity of 185,000 Tons/Year and an Ethylene capacity of 360,000 Tons/Year.
• Sinopec Fujian has restarted its PX Plant after maintenance work. The Plant is located in Gulei, Fujian, China.
• Shanghai SECCO Petrochemical has kept its Acrylonitrile (ACN) weekly Prices stable at CNY 10,200/MT in China, ex-tank basis, stable from the previous week.
• Styrene Monomer Prices are assessed as stable at US$ 1035/- per MT FOB Korea basis.

Expert Opinion on PVC Market Amid Bearish Trend

• Anticipate a slight surplus in PVC supply and demand in the short term, with manufacturers maintaining high operating rates and elevated enterprise and market inventory levels. On the cost side, the price of calcium carbide is unlikely to increase further, offering average cost support. 
• The weak performance of the PVC futures market has affected confidence in the spot market, which remains generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to experience weak and volatile conditions in the near term, with close monitoring of any significant news developments.