PVC Market Faces Supply Pressure Amid Weak Demand and Sluggish Exports

Key Highlights

• Current Prices: China SG-5 carbide PVC at RMB 4,664/ton; India spot offers ₹67,000–70,000/MT.
• Supply Pressure: Inventory buildup from steady production; Inner Mongolia plant restarts add to supply.
• Weak Demand: Downstream plastic manufacturing and exports remain sluggish; India’s anti-dumping measures weigh on trade.
• Limited Cost Support: Calcium-carbide prices flat; crude oil and PVC futures also weak.

PVC Price Overview: China and India Spot Trends

• The PVC spot market in China remained weak and volatile last week. The average price of SG-5 carbide-based PVC was recorded at RMB 4,664/ton as of September 5, reflecting a 0.26% weekly decline. 
• Most manufacturers kept quotations stable, with minor adjustments of about RMB 50/ton. In East China, SG-5 electrical grade PVC was largely quoted between RMB 4,630–4,760/ton.
• At Mundra, XINFA PVC K67 (SG5) ready material is priced at ₹67,000/MT, while DAGU PVC K57 (DG700) ready material is available at ₹69,750/MT. Meanwhile, FORMOSA PVC K67 compounded (S65D) is being offered at ₹70,000/MT.

Demand–Supply Dynamics: Inventory Buildup and Sluggish Consumption

Supply Side: Manufacturers continued stable operations, leading to a steady-to-slightly increasing supply. Social inventories showed accumulation, signaling persistent supply-side pressure.

Demand Side: Downstream demand stayed subdued, with the seasonal peak yet to materialize. Export performance remained sluggish, weighed down by India’s anti-dumping measures. Buying enthusiasm from distributors and end-users was low, leaving overall market activity lackluster.

Upstream & Policy Updates: Calcium Carbide, Crude, and RIL Announcements

• Upstream Calcium Carbide: Prices stayed at lower levels, with only a modest 0.7% uptick last week, offering limited support to PVC costs.
• Market Sentiment: Crude oil and PVC futures markets also trended weak, further restricting bullish momentum in spot prices.
• Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) announced price protection in PVC w.e.f. 16th September 2025 till 1st October 2025 (6:00 A.M.).
• RIL announced an APR linked Incentive Scheme in PVC for the month of September, 2025 as following:
  a) Discount of Rs. 1000/MT for lifting of >=7% & <8.33% of annualised Qty.
  b) Discount of Rs. 2000/MT for lifting of >=8.33% of annualised Qty.
• RIL rolled over PVC Prices w.e.f. 11th September, 2025.

Market Outlook: Range-Bound Prices Amid Weak Fundamentals

• The PVC market is expected to remain weak and range-bound.
• On the supply side, additional production is likely with plants in Inner Mongolia Jun and sea-level units resuming operations after maintenance, which may increase supply pressure. 
• On the demand side, downstream plastic manufacturing shows no signs of improvement in the short term, and exports continue to face challenges due to trade restrictions. 
• On the cost side, calcium carbide prices are unlikely to provide significant upward momentum.

Overall, PVC prices are projected to stay under pressure, with weak fundamentals and limited cost support weighing on the market.